Bitcoin closed the week just below its 50-week moving average of $75,500, ending seven consecutive weeks above that level, according to a Wintermute market review reported by ChainCatcher on November 9, 2026. The market maker identified $68,000 as its next level to watch while outlining conditions that would turn its outlook positive.
Risk-asset selloff and ETF withdrawals
Wintermute linked the market weakness to a repricing of regulatory risk in the artificial intelligence sector after Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections. In its account, crypto fell alongside other risk assets, with Bitcoin dropping below $75,000.
The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on the Thursday preceding the report, its largest one-day decline since April 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded weekly net outflows of $1.28 billion—the largest since June 2026 and, according to Wintermute, enough to erase the year’s net inflows.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release showed 165,000 jobs, above market expectations of roughly 60,000. The reported probability of a December interest-rate increase rose to about 77%, from approximately 67% a week earlier.
Bitcoin’s rebound reversed before the weekly close
According to Wintermute, Bitcoin reached $81,000 on Wednesday but had surrendered that advance by Friday. On Sunday, it fell to around $73,500, slightly above its 200-day moving average near $73,000, before recording the weekly close just below the 50-week average.
As trading moved into Monday, more than $1 billion in positions were liquidated. Ether liquidations exceeded Bitcoin liquidations, while almost all liquidations on the Bitcoin side were long positions.
Altcoins suffered larger declines: NEAR, HYPE, ENA and LIT posted double-digit losses, compared with Bitcoin’s roughly 4% decline over the same period. ZEC was among the few large-cap tokens to rise.
Wintermute’s conditional outlook
Wintermute said it would remain cautious while Bitcoin traded below its 50-week moving average. Its downside scenario depended on a daily close below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average, which it said could open the way toward $68,000. That level was a conditional reference point, not a certain price destination.
Reclaiming $80,000 would change its assessment. More specifically, Wintermute said its stance would turn positive if Bitcoin established daily closes above $80,000 and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a week of net inflows.
The firm identified Tuesday’s October CPI release as the first near-term test, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% month over month. It also highlighted the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting, with the reported probability of a rate increase standing at roughly 77%.
These market levels, expectations and scenarios reflect Wintermute’s review as reported in November 2026, rather than a current market assessment.
Original source: ChainCatcher, published November 9, 2026, at 22:59:37 (UTC+8).
