Bitcoin’s post-election rebound failed to hold, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerated, according to JZL Capital’s report published on November 9, 2026. The report described a combination of technology-stock weakness, cross-asset risk reduction and crypto liquidations—not a selloff attributable to a single political statement or exchange-related event.
The report’s headline review covered November 2–6, with some crypto observations extending through November 8. The prices and conditional outlook below reflect that historical reporting period, not current market conditions.
Bitcoin’s weekly decline masked a sharper reversal
From the start of November 2 through 7 p.m. Beijing time on November 8, BTC fell from $77,988 to $75,894, down 2.68%. It traded as high as $81,196 and as low as $74,888, with a maximum drawdown of 7.77%.
That weekly change understated the reversal after an initial post-election rally. Using a separate, matched closing window—from October 30 to November 6 at 4 p.m. U.S. Eastern time—Bitcoin declined 1.38%, compared with a 3.37% decline in the Nasdaq Composite, outperforming by approximately 1.99 percentage points.
JZL linked the subsequent pressure to unresolved concerns over AI capital-spending returns, financing costs and regulation. On November 5, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped approximately 6.4%. By that afternoon in U.S. Eastern time, crypto liquidations over the preceding 24 hours totaled about $1.09 billion.
ETF redemptions weakened the demand backdrop
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.282 billion in weekly net outflows, up from roughly $202 million the previous week, using Farside’s net subscription and redemption figures.
Only Wednesday recorded net inflows. Thursday and Friday together accounted for about $842 million in net outflows.
- IBIT: approximately $1.210 billion in weekly net outflows.
- FBTC: approximately $93 million in weekly net inflows.
The divergence showed that flows were not uniformly negative across products. JZL also stressed that IBIT redemptions reflected decisions by the product’s holders; they did not establish that BlackRock was selling a proprietary Bitcoin position.
For JZL, the central limitation on the rebound was the absence of sustained ETF buying. One positive session did not reverse the week’s overall withdrawal of capital.
Strong employment limited expectations for easier policy
The report cited October U.S. payroll growth of 165,000, versus expectations of 70,000, alongside combined upward revisions of 84,000 for August and September. Unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%.
Following the release, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point December rate increase rose to 76.3%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous week. JZL’s interpretation was that resilient employment reduced near-term growth concerns but made rapid monetary easing a less credible source of valuation support.
Other indicators pointed to tighter risk conditions despite falling Treasury yields:
- Investment-grade credit spreads widened 4 basis points to 93 basis points.
- High-yield spreads widened 22 basis points to 348 basis points.
- The 10-year nominal Treasury yield fell 8 basis points, but the real yield rose 3 basis points, with lower inflation compensation accounting for the nominal decline.
- The VIX rose from 16.61 to 28.18 on November 5, before easing to 25.64 on November 6.
These readings supported JZL’s assessment of heightened risk aversion rather than a broad improvement in financing conditions.
Regulation and fund retrenchment added uncertainty
After Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, JZL expected additional agenda and negotiation constraints on the CLARITY legislation. It emphasized that September’s setback concerned a procedural motion to begin Senate consideration—not a completed final legislative vote.
The report expected greater attention to consumer protection, conflicts of interest and Trump-linked crypto projects when the new Congress took office in 2027. It also cautioned that a congressional transition would not automatically overturn existing SEC or CFTC arrangements or immediately prohibit all crypto activity. In its assessment, Bitcoin remained more directly exposed to overall risk appetite and actual fund flows.
Fund retrenchment was another potential source of liquidity pressure. Walleye lost 5.9% in October and was down 6.8% year-to-date through the end of October. In a November 5 investor letter, it announced a reduction in its internal equity long-short business and the dismissal of equity head Anil Gondi and a substantial portion of the internal investment team. Millennium was also reported to have withdrawn more than $1.5 billion in combined allocations from external managers Troluce and Axebrook.
JZL noted that forced reductions in crowded positions could spread selling pressure to assets without fresh negative news. However, public information did not establish how much Bitcoin, if any, these funds had directly sold.
Leverage had contracted, but a full reset was unproven
Binance BTC/USDT perpetual open interest, measured in BTC, fell from 100,500 BTC to 91,600 BTC during the week, an 8.85% reduction. By 6 p.m. Beijing time on November 8, it had recovered to 96,100 BTC—only 1.55% below the week’s starting level.
Meanwhile, CoinGlass’s annualized BTC funding snapshots remained positive: 7.75%, 6.67% and 10.36% at 8 a.m. Beijing time on November 2, 6 and 8, respectively. These were point-in-time annualized readings, not weekly returns.
JZL therefore did not consider the liquidation episode proof that leverage had been fully cleared. Sentiment was cautious rather than continuously extreme: the Fear and Greed Index fell from 34 on November 1 to 32 on November 8, briefly reaching 25 on November 7.
JZL’s conditional price framework
JZL’s previous rebound framework had identified $80,800–$81,200 as an upside resistance area. The week’s $81,196 high reached that zone but failed to hold, before BTC broke below $76,300 and reached $74,888.
For the subsequent short-term outlook, JZL outlined a weak consolidation range of $74,800–$77,400:
- A decisive daily break below $74,800–$75,000, followed by a failed recovery, would shift attention toward $72,000–$73,000.
- A recovery above $76,300 would still need to clear the roughly $77,400 10-day moving average before a return toward $79,200–$80,000, including the approximately $79,450 20-day moving average, became plausible.
These were the source’s conditional levels, not certain outcomes. Its broader recovery conditions were narrower ETF outflows, reclaimed moving averages and stronger spot buying. Monday-to-Friday BTC spot turnover had instead declined 1.6%, from 7.144 billion to 7.030 billion USDT, offering no evidence of sustained expansion in buying support.
Source: JZL Capital weekly report, via Foresight News, published November 9, 2026, at 19:36:17 UTC+8.