Bitcoin’s pullback from its September peak reduced short-term holders’ profitable supply to about 38%, while clearing much of the leveraged long exposure accumulated since August, according to a report attributed to Glassnode’s research team, translated by TechFlow and published by Odaily on November 5, 2026, at 14:02:45 UTC+8.
The report’s central interpretation was conditional: Bitcoin’s August breakout structure could remain intact if key support levels held, but weak U.S. spot ETF flows left a recovery dependent on stronger demand. The figures and events below reflect that dated report, not current market conditions.
Short-term holders lose their profit cushion
The share of short-term-holder Bitcoin supply in unrealized profit fell from above 97.5% in early October to roughly 38%, following an approximately 10% decline from September’s high. The report defines short-term holders as those who acquired their coins within the preceding 155 days.
Glassnode’s analysis interpreted this as a substantial reduction in speculative excess rather than, by itself, confirmation of a bottom. A recovery above 50%, alongside stable spot prices, would indicate that more recent buyers were returning to unrealized profit.
The report identified several nearby reference levels:
- $77,700: the True Market Mean, its measure of active investors’ average cost basis.
- $75,700: the short-term-holder cost basis.
- $73,000–$76,000: a broader zone combining technical references and estimated leveraged-position liquidation levels.
On November 3, Bitcoin reportedly closed slightly below the True Market Mean, reached an overnight low of $76,100, and subsequently recovered above that benchmark. The analysis described the retest as consistent with former resistance becoming support, provided those levels continued to hold.
Less long leverage, but short liquidations cluster near $87,000
According to the report, the decline removed much of the leveraged long exposure built during the August advance. Remaining estimated liquidation concentrations below spot were mainly at $73,000–$76,000, with another lower cluster at $60,000–$63,000.
Meanwhile, estimated short-liquidation exposure increased over the preceding week, even as spot prices fell only about 3.5%. The largest overhead cluster was near $87,000, close to September’s high.
The authors argued that a spot-led rebound could force short sellers to buy back positions and amplify an advance. That was a possible mechanism—not a forecast that Bitcoin would necessarily reach $87,000.
Options positioning leans bullish into year-end
The report put outstanding call-option exposure at approximately $18 billion, compared with $13 billion in puts.
The two largest upcoming expiries were:
- November 27: approximately $5.7 billion in open interest, with a reported max-pain level of $80,000.
- December 25: approximately $12.5 billion, with max pain at $76,000.
Because those max-pain levels sat on opposite sides of spot, the authors did not identify a clear one-way pull from that measure alone.
Large late-December call positions were concentrated at $80,000, $90,000, $100,000 and $120,000 strikes, while protective puts were concentrated at $60,000 and below. The report interpreted this distribution as a bullish positioning bias; those strikes were not presented as guaranteed outcomes.
Spot activity holds up as ETF money leaves
Average daily spot volume was approximately $24 billion over the preceding two weeks—about 50% above its level before the early-August breakout.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs nevertheless recorded nearly $1 billion in net outflows across the two reporting weeks, with average daily net outflows of about $115 million. The report said inflow momentum had weakened after Bitcoin regained $85,000 in mid-September.
The authors inferred that existing crypto-market capital, rather than substantial fresh external institutional inflows, was supporting much of the trading activity. That distinction underpinned their view that sustained upside would benefit from renewed outside demand.
Resilience is the thesis—not proof of a bottom
Over the preceding two months, Bitcoin fell about 2%, compared with a decline of less than 1% for the S&P 500 and roughly 9% for spot gold. Across a rolling 90-trading-day window, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on approximately half of trading days, returning its daily win rate to around the 50% threshold for the first time since March 2025.
The article also cited two major events as tests of resilience. It reported that Binance disclosed an approximately $6.3 billion hot-wallet theft on October 29, followed by a roughly 3% Bitcoin decline and recovery toward its pre-event level. It further reported that Democrats won both congressional chambers in the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, after which Bitcoin rose about 1.5%, following an approximately 11% pre-election drawdown from September’s high. These event claims are attributed to the supplied article.
The report’s concluding boundary was $73,000: holding the broader $73,000–$76,000 area would support its interpretation of a technical reset within the August uptrend; a decisive break below $73,000 would instead point toward a longer consolidation. Its constructive outlook therefore depended on support holding and demand improving—not simply on leverage having been cleared.
Source: Odaily article, attributed to Glassnode’s research team and translated by TechFlow. Original reporting timestamp: November 5, 2026, 14:02:45 UTC+8.
