On November 11, 2026, TechFlow reported that the U.S. October CPI reading came in above expectations. After the data were released, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began betting on a 50-basis-point rate increase in December.
Huobi HTX chief analyst Cloud does not share that bet as a base case. Cloud says the probability of a 50-basis-point increase is not high, that 25 basis points remains the baseline, and that the current decline is closer to a correction of what had been priced in.
Why one hot CPI month is not treated as a new hiking pace
Cloud’s reasons, as reported by TechFlow, are three.
The Federal Reserve weighs whether the data are continuous. Historically, cases in which a single month’s CPI jump changed the pace of rate increases have been extremely rare. One month above expectations is not enough to overturn a gradual path.
The stickiness in this inflation episode comes mainly from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which Cloud expects to fade on its own. Employment is also weakening at the margin. On that reading, the committee has no reason to add aggressive tightening on top of the peak of that transmission.
Credit spreads have widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, so financial conditions have already tightened in substance. Adding another 50 basis points would, in Cloud’s assessment, amount to actively creating financial-stability risk.
Leverage readings, and what they do not confirm
On the crypto market, TechFlow reported that funding rates have turned negative, open interest in perpetual contracts has fallen by nearly 20% over one week, and the Fear and Greed Index has entered the deep-fear range. Cloud’s conclusion from that set of readings is that leverage clearing is already relatively sufficient and that room for a further sharp decline in the short term is limited.
Cloud does not treat that as an immediate rebound. Confirmation, in this account, requires CPI to fall back over the next two months. If inflation instead exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50-basis-point increase is delivered, a trend decline would begin. As of the report, Cloud assigns a relatively low probability to that scenario.
Those judgments are Cloud’s, carried by TechFlow on November 11, 2026. They are not a forecast by this site, and the source supplies no later CPI, policy, or Bitcoin readings. TechFlow notes that the article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any investment product.
The October CPI comparison, the move in Bitcoin toward about $73,000, and the December hike pricing are events described in that November 11, 2026 report (11:44, UTC+8), not a new announcement.
