Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been weak, with Bitcoin even falling below the $60,000 mark to a low of $58,402 on the 25th. Although Bitcoin has rebounded to a high of $62,422 at 3 a.m. on the 26th, investors remain cautious and worried about its future direction.
Below is a quick summary of the current analysis and opinions of various institutions and experts.
10X Research: Bitcoin is severely oversold
In response to Bitcoin’s current decline, cryptocurrency research firm 10X Research pointed out in a report on the 25th that there are many factors contributing to the market downturn, including:
– Cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox announcing that it will begin repaying creditors in early July, potentially leading to the dumping of tens of thousands of Bitcoins in the market.
– The German government may sell its seized Bitcoins, with a total value of nearly $3 billion.
– Selling by Bitcoin miners.
– Outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs.
– Profit-taking by Bitcoin OGs.
Despite these pressures on the market, 10X Research stated that Bitcoin is currently in a severely oversold stage, with the market’s greed and fear index almost at its lowest level. Therefore, Bitcoin may be at a relatively low price point, and after further decline, it may experience a rebound.
CryptoQuant: Market may see a V-shaped rebound
Analyst Mignolet stated that based on last year’s Bitcoin UTXO profit percentage during the consolidation phase, although Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, the UTXO profit percentage has clearly moved away from its low point. Therefore, Bitcoin whales may react to the market’s panic sentiment, suggesting that the market may see a V-shaped rebound.
Matrixport: Bitcoin’s greed and fear index may have reached its lowest level
Matrixport also pointed out on the 25th that Bitcoin’s greed and fear index may have reached its lowest level, indicating that the market may have reached its bottom and could rebound:
As long as Bitcoin remains in a bull market, this indicator often starts to rebound from its current level. Although the moving average of this indicator is still declining, we hope to see it turn upwards before making a purchase.
Bitfinex: Short-term market sentiment remains bearish
Although many analysts believe that the current market may have hit bottom, cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex pointed out in its latest weekly report that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continued to see net outflows last week, totaling over $540 million, indicating that bearish ETF investors are reacting to negative news in the market.
In addition, the open interest of Bitcoin futures on the CME and other trading platforms has also decreased significantly, indicating a significant reduction in arbitrage trading related to ETF fund flows.
In summary, market sentiment still seems to be bearish:
The decrease in Bitcoin holdings is consistent with the negative funding rates of multiple exchanges over the past week, as well as the net outflows of ETFs, indicating a significant reduction in arbitrage trading related to ETF fund flows.
Market sentiment remains bearish as Bitcoin’s short-term trend remains weak.