BTC volatility hits a new historical low, and historical data shows that such low volatility often precedes significant market movements.
For instance, looking back at 2016, many believed that BTC’s market value was already substantial, and the price was becoming stable. However, in 2017, a major bull market emerged, causing mainstream cryptocurrencies to surge by several tens or even hundreds of times their original value.
Similar situations occurred in 2019, 2020, and 2023, where mainstream cryptocurrencies experienced a significant decrease in volatility before doubling in value.
It’s worth noting that before the waterfall-like market in 2018, volatility also reached a new low. This suggests that low volatility often indicates an upcoming major market movement, rather than being the sole indicator of market fluctuations.
Volatility reflects the extent of market changes, but many people consider the recent fluctuations to be significant. However, when a true trending market arrives, BTC’s price could experience drastic fluctuations of tens of thousands of dollars within a few days or even a single day. In just 15 days, it could double or halve in value. Therefore, compared to what may come, the current volatility is likely just a relatively calm part of the mainstream market.
When considering future trends, the release of non-farm payroll data in July will be a crucial turning point for the market. Some signals have already emerged, indicating the need to closely monitor market movements.
Regarding the upcoming bull market, there are two main possibilities: first, breaking through $57,000 and then retracing to a support level before rallying; second, oscillating around the current level of $61,000 and gradually initiating a major upward wave. Short-term opportunities for swing trading may be relatively challenging to capture, so investors can consider bottom fishing in batches based on their individual circumstances and positions. At this stage of the market, it is advisable to initiate partial positions and keep the remaining positions for a potential breakthrough or downward market.
There are two strategies to consider: an aggressive approach, which involves staying out of the market and waiting for a possible breakthrough and subsequent market decline to buy at the bottom, or a direct entry strategy, where one buys and waits regardless of whether the market will break through and decline, relying on time as a factor.
Investment choices depend on individual risk preferences and market judgment. As mentioned earlier, during past crazy bull markets (such as the second half of 2021 and the first half of this year), it is not recommended to buy initial coins offered by centralized exchanges when emotions are extremely inflated, as that usually leads to buying at the peak. This is a lesson that has been repeatedly verified in history.
Lastly, let’s talk about VanEck’s submission of the first SOL ETF in the United States. The news caused a surge in Solana (SOL) last night!
A week ago, a fan asked me whether they should consider buying Solana (SOL) given its significant price drop or if they should cut their losses. My response was to suggest a dollar-cost averaging strategy, where one can buy anytime below $130, taking advantage of market downturns. From the perspective of a holder, as long as the bull market continues, Solana’s pullbacks can be seen as a process of shaking out weak hands.
After the news of Solana’s ETF release, the market experienced a strong rally, triggering the second wave of price increases. This rally is genuine and is unlikely to reverse in the short term. After reaching $151, the price started to adjust. Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Solana has seen relatively active trading volume after the rally, so it is advisable to closely monitor short-term trading opportunities. The mid-term to short-term resistance is expected to be between $157 and $161, with the first support level at $144 and the second support level between $140 and $138.
Once Solana’s ETF application is launched, market speculation will immediately heat up, driving meme coins and ecosystem projects on the chain to rise rapidly. MEME series coins like WIF, BOME, and BONK, as well as diverse projects within the Solana ecosystem like RAY, JUP, JTO, PYTH, and TNSR, will benefit from this trend.