This is the best of times, this is the worst of times; this is the age of wisdom, this is the age of foolishness; this is the season of belief, this is the season of skepticism; this is the spring of hope, this is the winter of despair; people have everything before them, people have nothing before them; people are going straight to heaven; people are going straight the other way. This is the opening paragraph of Dickens’ “A Tale of Two Cities”. Perhaps this is also a fitting footnote to the “Belief-Denial” stage in which the current BTC secondary market finds itself.
Yesterday’s [2024.6.28 Jiaolian internal reference: the next support level, 55-56k?] mentioned the latest core PCE price inflation data in the U.S., which fell from 2.8% in April to 2.6% in May, in line with expectations. Although it is claimed to be one of the most important indicators for the Fed’s interest rate cut decision, the continued decline and approach to the 2% control target of PCE data is at odds with the recent strong statements from the Fed to delay the interest rate cut.
What the Fed really thinks is only clear to itself. The market guesses and guesses, but can’t fathom the Fed’s mind.
Seeing a chartist, The Great Martis, drew a chart of a double-headed downturn, truly scared someone:
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The more you see this kind of chartist (or technical analyst) performance, the more you know how unreliable these things are.
This chart can be completely interpreted in the opposite way: the end of February, the end of April, the end of June, these are clearly three tests of the $60,000 support. Triple testing, is it a surge?
Some might say, the end of February and the beginning of March was clearly a breakthrough from the bottom up, why is it a bottom test?
Those who only know how to look at charts and don’t understand the basic knowledge of BTC are blindfolded donkeys, trapping themselves in a mill.
In April, there was a halving of BTC production. By retracing and adjusting the historical trend before the halving, using the bottom before March as the support point of symmetry, it is actually equivalent to a high-level decline. After hitting the bottom of $60,000, it oscillates in the $60,000-70,000 range.
So this oscillating wash is bottom consolidation, not top consolidation.
Jiaolian is not saying that the above is correct, but that this kind of thing, whether positive or negative, can find a seemingly reasonable explanation and argument. In the end, it depends on what you believe in your heart.
This big short also drew a graphic of an epic crash in the U.S. stock market:
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People have been aware since 2019, and even after 2015, that the world economy is entering a recession and depression.
The miserable scene of the Great Depression in the United States from 1929 to 1933, how many people still remember it?
Compared to the white-collar unemployed at the time who dared not tell their families, put on a suit in the morning, tied a tie to pretend to go to work, and then went to pick up food from the garbage cans on the street, today’s level of depression seems far from that.
The Fed is not going to die until it sees the Yellow River, right? Without causing a crash, it will persist in high interest rates, and not take a step back.
Perhaps you and I still have some time to prepare for the possible financial collapse.
The focus and difficulty lie in knowing where the destruction is coming, and where the refuge is.