Cryptocurrency website reports:
Bitcoin continued its decline today, dropping below $58,000 at one point. Speculation arose that this was due to Mt. Gox beginning to repay $8 billion in cryptocurrency to users, but no movements have been detected from Mt. Gox wallet addresses yet. Is now really the best time to buy?
@the_smart_ape shared thoughts on X, stating it’s not the time to buy, at least not for him. He plans to wait until after Mt. Gox completes its repayments.
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Don’t fall for claims that now is the best time to buy! Another crisis looms, and Bitcoin could face severe setbacks! Read this before making any decisions.
Many are telling you it’s the best time to buy.
If not for the sudden release of $9 billion in BTC announced, things might have been different.
This event will have a significant impact on the ecosystem, so let’s set aside emotions, stay neutral, and see what unfolds.
Mt. Gox, as known to many, was a Japanese-based CEX, one of the largest at the time (2010-14).
But they suffered multiple hacks, leading to closure and freezing of all client funds. In a series of hacks, Mt. Gox lost a total of 850,000 BTC.
Years later, 200,000 BTC were found in old wallet formats.
Japanese courts decided to redistribute 140,000 BTC to affected customers.
Initially set for October 2023, then postponed to October 2024, and recently moved up to July 2024.
When these customers lost their BTC, its value ranged from $1 to $500.
Once compensated, they’ll get returns ranging from 500 times to 60,000 times.
This refund will be in BTC, not fiat, so it’s reasonable to assume most will sell to cash in.
These BTC have yet to be distributed.
How do I know?
Mt. Gox addresses are public, so you can track their on-chain activity.
They hold 3 addresses, each containing 47,228 $BTC.
The easiest way to track these wallet evolutions is through @ArkhamIntel:
• Go to @ArkhamIntel
• Enter “Mt. Gox” in the search bar: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/mt-gox
• Select the entity
You’ll find a dashboard allowing you to track all Mt. Gox wallet changes and transactions.
I monitor these wallets daily.
Why?
Because I won’t buy any Bitcoin until this $9 billion is fully distributed.
These funds bring huge market uncertainty, so trading before this issue is resolved carries risks.
Is this necessarily bearish?
Not necessarily, remember when $ETH unlocked withdrawals for all ETH2.0 stakers (Shanghai upgrade) last year.
Some earned 10 times or 100 times, but prices didn’t see significant impacts.
Additionally, all these customers are native cryptocurrency users, with most still in the ecosystem.
These released $BTC may connect to other ecosystems.
This could eventually lower Bitcoin’s dominance and kick off altcoin season.
We also need to consider FTX still owes its users $11 billion to $15 billion.
This money will likely enter the market soon and could stay in the industry, as FTX users are generally native to crypto.
As you can see, things are much more complex than we imagined.
It’s hard to say if this event is beneficial or detrimental to the market.
But one thing’s certain: it’s uncertain.
In times of uncertainty, my strategy has always been to wait.
So I’ll only be watching Mt. Gox wallets, and once they repay all customers, I’ll resume buying.