As the elusive market capitalization of BTC’s TOTAL2 remains, the prospects for altcoin season continue to wane. Despite some analysts seeing buying opportunities, market trends suggest it’s still a distant reality.
For months, analysts have been of the opinion that the altcoin season had ended. However, these predictions have not materialized during that time. Similarly, the same speculations are occurring after Bitcoin’s price dropped to its lowest in two months.
Altcoin season, often referred to as ‘alt season,’ is the period when other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To validate this market phase, at least 75% of the top 50 alts by market cap need to perform better than the leading cryptocurrency.
Yet, during this cycle, many cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has continued to lead the broader cryptocurrency market’s ups and downs.
Will alts catch up to Bitcoin in the future?
A technical indicator that says “yes” or “no” to this season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies on the market, excluding BTC.
When this indicator fluctuates, it believes in the possibility of the upcoming alternative season. However, a significant decline indicates otherwise.
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, as of press time, TOTAL2’s market cap is $960.23 billion. This is a 25.63% increase over the past six months. However, it has been hot from the past 30 days to the last 24 hours.
In particular, the value has dropped by 15.08% within the last month and by 4.13% over the past seven days. Considering the current situation, it’s reasonable to say that altcoins may not find relief anytime soon.
However, if prices start to rise and approach a market cap of $1 trillion, the likelihood of a comprehensive price increase may increase.
Some analysts say memes are the leaders
Meanwhile, some analysts have commented on the potential performance of these coins. For example, analyst Murad from X believes that meme coins will lead the surge whether or not the altcoin season arrives.
Murad pointed out in his post,
“If an alternate season occurs, Memes will outperform Alts. If no alternate season occurs, Memes will beat Alts.”
Looking at the performance of cryptocurrencies this year, we cannot deny that his view is valid. This is because meme coins like Pepe[PPE], Bonk[Bonk], Floki[Floki], and many others have outperformed many other altcoins.
If the situation remains the same when the market rebounds, then Murad’s stance will be validated. Another pseudonymous trader, Crypto Mr., did not specify his preference.
However, on July 1st, he mentioned that the price crash provided a rare buying opportunity. He wrote,
“Honestly, there are so many Altcoin charts that look very affordable right now. Most of them can easily reach 30 times.”
ETH’s role has yet to play
While these forecasts depend on market conditions, others have looked at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows whether Bitcoin’s performance is superior to Ethereum (ETH) or vice versa.
Historically, when ETH beats BTC in the game, it provides altcoins with a better chance to perform than the king coin. But if BTC leads, the altcoin season will be hard to come by.
As of press time, AMBCrypto observed that the ETH/BTC chart has dropped to 0.054. This figure has decreased by 1.62% over the past seven days. A few days ago, the price was 0.056.
But the recent value means 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If the situation improves, the altcoin season may see an improvement. Otherwise, the market phase may be delayed.
Meanwhile, the broader market may be waiting for the Ethereum ETF to start trading before confirming the altcoin season.
Real or not, here is ETH’s BTC market cap
Although initially expected to start on July 2nd, expectations have now tilted towards the 8th.
If ETH reflects Bitcoin’s performance after being approved in January, it will be a good thing for altcoins. If not, then the altcoin season may be far off.