CoinDesk Report:
Since 2013, over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has typically shown positive performance in July, with gains exceeding 16% in five of those years. However, this July is poised to be negative. Historical data from August and September indicate a trend of subdued returns, possibly extending into October, which is renowned for its historical profitability.
History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Historically, July has been a strong month for Bitcoin, as per data from coinglass.com, showing positive returns 63.64% of the time. This means July has been profitable for BTC in seven out of the past 11 years. Notably, July saw growth rates of 9.6% and 8.2% in 2013 and 2015 respectively. The subsequent five Julys showed even higher gains, peaking at 24.03% in 2020.
According to data from coinglass.com as of July 7, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen monthly returns since 2013.
However, Bitcoin has declined by 7.77% this July, with three weeks remaining. Looking ahead, odds may slightly change based on historical trends. Over the past 11 years, August has seen gains only 36.36% of the time. Nevertheless, analysts from Standard Chartered Bank’s Foreign Exchange and Digital Assets Research team predict that August will set a new historical high for BTC.
September’s performance, in retrospect, has been even less optimistic, with growth occurring only 27.27% of the time, or three years out of the past 11. In contrast, October has consistently been a robust month for Bitcoin, showing positive returns 81.82% of the time. With October 2024 preceding the U.S. elections, Standard Chartered Bank also views this as a potential catalyst for BTC prices.
While history rarely repeats itself exactly, it often echoes familiar patterns. Future events may reflect similar themes or trends, although outcomes are not always predictable. The current decline in July, coupled with traditionally lackluster performances in August and September, suggests caution, though outcomes may not necessarily align with expectations. Even with October’s historical strength and the upcoming U.S. elections, potential opportunities may not materialize as anticipated.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin’s past performance in specific months? Do you believe these trends will continue in the future? Share your thoughts and opinions on this topic in the comments section below.