NEWS: Bitcoin Falls 23% Below Peak Price, Analyst Benjamin Cowen Highlights Importance of Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) for Potential Recovery
Bitcoin has currently dropped 23% below its peak price, with the majority of losses occurring in the past week.
The premise of predicting a stock market crash in the summer is that it is still too early for the four-year cycle to reach its peak.
On July 7th, market analyst Benjamin Cowen identified the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) for Bitcoin as a key technical indicator that will determine whether the asset will recover later this year.
BMSB is a critical indicator.
The analyst compared the current trend with historical patterns from 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2023, specifically examining the relationship between BTC and its BMSB.
He stated that Bitcoin’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 may depend on whether it can surpass the BMSB in the coming weeks.
In 2023, Bitcoin dropped below the BMSB in August and stayed below that level for several weeks, then experienced a significant increase in the fourth quarter. However, after breaking below this level, the asset continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2019.
He mentioned that the peak of the cycle usually occurs in the fourth quarter after the halving, which would be in 2025, and concluded that it could still go either way:
“If we follow 2019, then the BMSB should remain as resistance. If we follow 2013, 2016, and 2023, then BTC should quickly move back above the BMSB.” We have discussed the idea of a calm summer for BTC in advance. Now that it has happened, what will happen next? I believe what happens in the fourth quarter of 2024 will depend on whether BTC can return above the bull market support band in the coming weeks or if it remains as resistance.