German Bitcoin is now empty only left with pressures in Mentougou

Coin World News reported:
Mt. Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, was hacked in 2014 and 850,000 bitcoins were stolen. After 10 years of bankruptcy litigation, compensation is finally underway. It is expected that by October of this year, Mt. Gox will pay 142,000 BTC (Bitcoin) and 143,000 BCH (Bitcoin Cash) to creditors.


Regarding the exact repayment time, Mt. Gox announced on July 5th that it has started to repay its debts to creditors through various cryptocurrency exchanges as planned. However, the specific time of receipt of repayment will vary depending on the exchange used by the creditors. For example, the repayment time for Kraken is 90 days, while Bitstamp is 60 days.
Arbitrage opportunities emerge?
Although the market is concerned that this may exacerbate the selling pressure on Bitcoin, Singaporean quantitative trading company Presto Labs believes that the start of Mt. Gox’s repayment will bring arbitrage opportunities. The company advises clients to go long on Bitcoin and short BCH to profit from Mt. Gox’s repayment process.
In a report released by Presto’s market analyst Peter Chung’s team on Wednesday, it was pointed out:
Mt. Gox’s trustees plan to distribute billions of dollars’ worth of BTC and BCH between July 1 and October 31, 2024, which could change the supply and demand dynamics of BTC and BCH in these four months, thereby opening up opportunities for paired trading.


Pair trading is a trading strategy that involves buying and selling two financial assets simultaneously, going long or short respectively, with the aim of profiting from their relative price movements.
Peter Chung pointed out that Presto Labs’ analysis shows that the selling pressure on BCH will be four times that of BTC, meaning that 24% of the daily trading value of BCH is equivalent to 6% of the daily trading value of BTC. Ignoring funding rate risks, going long on BTC perpetual contracts and paired with shorting BCH perpetual contracts is the most effective market-neutral strategy.
Creditor behavior prediction
CoinGecko data shows that in the past 24 hours, the trading volume of BTC exceeded $26.5 billion, while the trading volume of BCH only exceeded $250 million. Presto Labs also believes that early Bitcoin holders in the early days of Bitcoin may be “firm Bitcoin holders,” so Mt. Gox creditors who receive compensation are more likely to continue holding a portion of their received bitcoins rather than selling them directly. However, for BCH, due to its weaker investor base, Mt. Gox creditors who receive BCH compensation may sell all of it in the short term.
Analysis viewpoint
Ultimately, the Bitcoin selling pressure caused by Mt. Gox will be less than expected.
As nearly 75% of the creditors chose early payout (accepting a 10% reduction in value), currently only about 95,000 bitcoins are available for early compensation (the remaining BTC will take longer to pay).


Individual creditors will hold onto Bitcoin more than the market expects. They are long-term holders and are sensitive to technology, with many even rejecting attractive offers from the claims fund for many years.
Furthermore, with the price increase, even if only recovering 15% of the physical claims, claim holders have appreciated their recovered bitcoins 140 times (in USD) since the bankruptcy.
Therefore, the selling pressure on Bitcoin will not be as great as investors imagine, but BCH may face more severe downward pressure due to its lower liquidity.