According to a new analysis by Econometrics, if the current breakout is proven to be true, the price of Bitcoin will at least double.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin struggled against bearish momentum, dropping to $65,188 after reaching a three-month high of $69,500 on Monday. Meanwhile, the recovery is underway, with Bitcoin experiencing a slight increase of 0.3% today, trading at $67,132.
While opinions on whether Bitcoin will surpass $70,000 or drop below $60,000 vary, Econometrics has made a bold analysis suggesting that the price of Bitcoin must at least double within the next 12 months.
Why Bitcoin could experience a “minimum” 100% price increase
Bullish predictions assume that Bitcoin and the broader stock market will maintain strong positive momentum next year. In this case, it is expected that the median value of Bitcoin will rise by approximately 100%, and by the end of 2025, its value could reach $130,000.
However, the 5th percentile in the simulation indicates a more conservative outlook, suggesting a potential loss of 26% if momentum weakens in the next 12 months.
On the other hand, the 95th percentile in the simulation indicates more aggressive returns. Specifically, it predicts that if momentum exceeds expectations, the cumulative return could reach as high as 465%.
Bitcoin must maintain crucial support to confirm sustainable upward trend
The analysis also acknowledges signs of an overheated market, which could challenge this prediction.
Since September 18, Bitcoin has been on an upward trend following the Fed’s interest rate cut. Since then, the major asset has grown by over 20% from $57,628. Although it briefly returned to the $59,000 level earlier this month, a pullback led to a strong rebound to $69,500 on October 21.
Bitcoin continues to struggle around this threshold, and market participants are anxious about the next decisive move.
Econometrics emphasizes that Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $65,000 is crucial for maintaining a strong long-term outlook. Analyst Rekt Capital also expresses a similar optimistic stance, noting that Bitcoin’s prospects remain hopeful as long as it stays above $66,000 this weekend.
While Econometrics sees $130,000 as the minimum target for Bitcoin in a sustained bull market, analysts at Bernstein have released a new analysis suggesting that even $200,000 would be a conservative price outlook for Bitcoin by 2025.