Standard Chartered Bank BTC may surge above 73000 on Election Day

CoinJek reports:
Author: Brian McGleenon, The block; Translation: Taozhu
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will retest its historical high of over $73,000 against the US dollar on the day of the US presidential election.
Kendrick’s prediction is based on Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that Bitcoin could reach a historical high of $73,000 on the day of the US presidential election on November 5th.
His prediction is based on an analysis of Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.
“We use daily Bitcoin trading volume levels to estimate the price trend after the election. Our base case is that the Bitcoin price will be around $73,000 on election day,” Kendrick said in an email on Thursday.
He also pointed out that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, the breakeven point for options suggests that option prices could rise by about 4% once the election results are announced, and the total increase in the next few days could be around 10%.
The analyst emphasized that the dynamics of the options market provide insights into the initial price trend after the election.
A large number of open BTC call options are set to expire on December 27th with a strike price of $80,000, indicating that Bitcoin will quickly move towards this level.
“If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target for Bitcoin could rise to $125,000,” he said. Conversely, Kendrick said that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may initially decline, but it is expected to reach around $75,000 by the end of 2024.
Kendrick pointed out that recent trading activity is a positive indicator for Bitcoin prices.
“In recent weeks, Bitcoin prices have risen along with other trades popular among Trump supporters,” he wrote. “According to data from RealClearPolitics, the current odds of Trump winning are 59%, and specific markets such as Polymarket indicate a 75% likelihood of a Republican sweep if Trump wins.”
The Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank added that Wednesday’s Bitcoin price drop to a local low of $65,200 may be the last one before the US presidential election.