CoinWorld reported:
According to data from Polymarket, a large cryptocurrency betting platform, former US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November presidential election have once again risen to 64.1%, significantly surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin will surge to $125,000.
When current US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, Trump’s chances of winning reached 57%, but now his chances have skyrocketed again.
Polymarket data indicates that the overseas market is very optimistic about Trump winning this election. He has previously promised to establish a Bitcoin national reserve if he wins.
Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that if Republicans control the US Congress after the election on November 5th, the value of Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of this year.
Kendrick expects Bitcoin to reach around $73,000 by the election day on November 5th. If Trump is re-elected, based on options information, Kendrick believes that Bitcoin will rise by about 4% when the results are announced and will increase by 10% within a few days.
In a report, he wrote, “Our basic prediction is that Bitcoin will rise to around $73,000 by election day, catching up with Polymarket’s market probability of Trump’s victory, which is slightly below the historical high of $73,800 set in March.”
If Harris is elected president, Kendrick said the Bitcoin price would decline for a period of time but would reach around $75,000 by the end of the year.
He pointed out that RealClearPolitics currently estimates Trump’s chances of winning at 59%, while Polymarket believes the probability of Trump’s victory is nearly 75%.
CoinTelegraph emphasized that the displayed winning probability on Polymarket was manipulated by an undisclosed “high-stakes bettor” who wagered over $20 million on Trump’s victory.
The crypto community believes that Trump is more friendly to the community than Harris, although Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen is a notable exception, as he has donated $11 million to Harris’ campaign.
In fact, Kendrick is not the only commentator who is confident in Trump.
Executives at cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach $92,000.
Cryptocurrency exchange Deribit predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
Less enthusiastic observers, such as Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, have stated that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin will rise.