CoinDesk Report:
Despite several noticeable increases, Bitcoin has not yet surpassed the anticipated $70,000 mark. However, according to the Coinbase Premium Index, data suggests potential for short-term upward trends in BTC. In this scenario, cryptocurrency assets may experience price increases.
Is Bitcoin’s price about to rise?
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent examined the Coinbase Premium Index within a one-hour timeframe. Observations show that significant fluctuations occur when the 24-hour moving average crosses the 168-hour moving average. Historical data indicates that such crossovers often form a “Golden Cross” and tend to trigger short-term price increases. Currently, the daily moving average has temporarily exceeded the weekly moving average, indicating potential bullish momentum.
Given that Bitcoin’s price is around $67,000, which is a key support level linked to the September high, and has been maintaining higher highs and lows since August, analysts predict that the market is establishing a clear upward structure.
Analysts from Kaiko also expressed similar views, emphasizing the negative “Kimchi Premium.” Despite the current slump in the Korean market, this premium could indicate a potential rebound for Bitcoin. This premium measures the difference in BTC prices between Korean exchanges and global platforms. Since September, this premium has turned negative for the second time. This trend reflects a decline in sentiment among Korean investors, as the trading price of Bitcoin continues to decline despite global price increases. Contributing factors include strict government capital controls that restrict foreign transactions on local exchanges, as well as limited cryptocurrency supply available on platforms like Upbit, which offers significantly fewer cryptocurrencies compared to its global peers. Historically, negative Kimchi Premiums often precede significant price increases in Bitcoin.
Increased retail participation
Equally important to note is the apparent recovery of BTC in retail chain activity after four months of low participation levels. On-chain transaction volumes below $10,000 have seen an increase, indicating renewed interest from smaller non-institutional investors. Retail demand has grown by 13% in the past 30 days, showing a significant recovery compared to the previous months’ decline. This level of participation is similar to the activity levels seen in March when BTC neared its all-time high. While whale trading remains strong during calm periods, the recent price increase in Bitcoin suggests that risk aversion among small investors has decreased, potentially leading to stronger retail momentum in the market.