**Introduction**
Recently, the hawkish policy expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have caused significant volatility in global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency market has not been immune to these fluctuations. Bitcoin’s price, after reaching an all-time high, suffered a sharp correction, dropping from $104,800 on the 19th to $95,700 today, a decline of over 8%. This price pullback triggered large-scale liquidations, with over $1.003 billion in liquidations within the past 24 hours, affecting more than 300,000 traders and causing heavy losses.
Despite the short-term market uncertainty, many technical analysts remain optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting that the market adjustment could just be a temporary correction, and there is still potential for future price increases. Tools such as the Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci extension indicators indicate that Bitcoin could break its previous all-time high of $166,000 by February 2025.
**Latest Price and Market Overview of Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)**
| Cryptocurrency | Price | 24H Change | 24H Volume | Market Cap | 7-Day Price Trend |
|—————-|—————|————|————–|————–|——————-|
| 
| **BTC** | $95,215.95 | -6.39% | $10.23B | $188.16B |
| 
| **ETH** | $3,295.29 | -10.4% | $638.7M | $396.31B |
**Bitcoin’s Short-Term Pullback and Bullish Signal from Bollinger Bands**
Since reaching an all-time high of $108,300 on the 17th, Bitcoin has experienced a sharp pullback, but technical analysis suggests that this correction may be a healthy market adjustment. John Bollinger, the creator of the widely used technical indicator Bollinger Bands, stated that Bitcoin’s price action perfectly demonstrates the classic application of the Bollinger Bands. After the price went through a contraction phase in the Bollinger Bands, it began to steadily rise along the upper band, which typically signals that the upward trend will continue.
Following the contraction (Squeeze) phase, prices typically break out in one direction. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is steadily climbing, indicating that the market might still be in a bullish phase. Although short-term fluctuations are possible, technical indicators suggest that the upward trend for Bitcoin has not ended.
**Fibonacci Extension Predicts Bitcoin Could Break $160K**
In addition to Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci extension is another important tool used by analysts to predict future price movements. Technical analyst CryptoCon highlighted that Bitcoin’s historical high is near the target price levels predicted by the Fibonacci extension, which further validates the effectiveness of the indicator. Looking ahead, CryptoCon predicts that Bitcoin will break through the $160,000 to $166,000 mark in February 2025, establishing a new market milestone.
He mentioned that while the market might experience short-term corrections, once the bull market fully kicks off, the effects of these corrections will no longer be the main focus for investors. Instead, the price target for February 2025 will become the key focus for the coming months. This forecast is based on Bitcoin’s current accelerated upward trend and historical data from Fibonacci extension.
**VIX Panic Index Indicates Potential Bitcoin Bottom Reversal**
In addition, the sharp rise in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) has sparked discussions among analysts about the possibility of a Bitcoin bottom reversal. As a gauge of market panic sentiment, the VIX typically spikes during times of extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Historical data suggests that when the VIX surges sharply, it often signals that Bitcoin’s price may have already reached a local bottom.
For example, in February 2018, when the VIX surged by 116%, Bitcoin plummeted by 16% to $6,891, but within just 15 days, Bitcoin’s price rebounded to over $11,000. A similar scenario occurred in August 2024, when the VIX increased by 65%, Bitcoin’s price hit a low of $54,000, and within weeks, it rebounded to over $64,000. The surge in VIX may indicate that Bitcoin’s price is likely to rebound after hitting a bottom.
**Bitcoin Reserve Plans and the Super-Cycle Theory**
Amid global economic conditions and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies, an increasing number of analysts are discussing the possibility of Bitcoin entering a “super-cycle.” Especially with the support of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, the establishment of Bitcoin reserves has become a key focus in the market. Trump has stated that he plans to sign an executive order or push legislation on his first day in office, requiring the U.S. to purchase Bitcoin and collaborate with other governments to implement a Bitcoin reserve program.
This initiative is expected to break the typical “boom-bust” cycle of Bitcoin every four years, pushing the market into a long-term upward “super-cycle.” Economist Alex Krüger believes that Bitcoin’s situation is similar to that of gold in the 1970s when the price of gold surged after the U.S. left the gold standard. He suggests that Bitcoin could enter a similar super-cycle, pushing its price to continue rising.
However, some experts remain cautious about this theory. Every Bitcoin bull market is often accompanied by the narrative that “this time is different,” but history has shown that these super-cycle theories often fail to sustain. Chris Brunsike, a partner at venture capital firm Placeholder, has stated that the super-cycle theory for Bitcoin is essentially a “collective delusion.” Therefore, investors need to view the possibility of a super-cycle with caution and avoid excessive optimism.
**SEC Approves Crypto ETFs: A New Opportunity for the Crypto Market**
Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) combining Bitcoin and Ethereum spot markets. This approval opens up new investment opportunities for the cryptocurrency market. According to the SEC’s approval documents, these ETFs will begin trading in January 2025 and provide investors with more diversified channels for crypto asset investment.
The launch of these funds means that investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum will become more compliant and transparent, attracting more institutional investors into the market. Bloomberg analysts predict that the new ETFs will attract a significant inflow of capital into the cryptocurrency market, further driving up the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
**Ethereum’s Outlook: Bitcoin’s Rise Drives ETH Price Surge**
In addition to Bitcoin, many analysts are also optimistic about Ethereum’s future price trajectory. Technical analyst Guy Turner forecasts that if Bitcoin’s price exceeds $200,000 by 2025, Ethereum’s price could also experience a significant surge, possibly breaking the historical high of $14,600. Turner pointed out that as Bitcoin’s price increases, investor interest in Ethereum will rise, pushing ETH prices into a price discovery phase.
Currently, Ethereum’s trading price is $3,686, but with Bitcoin’s sustained price increase, Ethereum may break its previous historical high and enter a new upward cycle. Turner emphasized that Fibonacci extension analysis indicates ETH could reach the key target price of $7,300, which serves as a reference for future investors.
**Conclusion**
Although the cryptocurrency market is currently facing some short-term fluctuations, technical indicators and macroeconomic trends suggest that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to enter a new upward cycle. Tools such as Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci extensions indicate that the market could be in an uptrend, while discussions around super-cycles and Bitcoin reserve plans are bringing new opportunities to the crypto market. However, investors still need to remain cautious of macroeconomic uncertainties, strategically plan their investments, and stay sensitive to market movements.