Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a range, currently undergoing a secondary-level pullback within this choppy market. The bottom of the range acts as a strong support level, where potential market movements may develop in proximity to this support. At this point, there is no necessity to participate; it is sufficient to observe and wait for market opportunities. Significant opportunities only arise when price volatility increases; patience is required to wait for the market to present such opportunities.
Yesterday’s new coin, LAYER, experienced a decline followed by a rise, significantly reducing its market capitalization. Whales have begun to take action, and the funding rates for contract trading pairs on major platforms have plunged to extremely exaggerated levels, with Binance now adjusting to collect fees every four hours.
This indicates that there is currently a strong bearish sentiment towards new coins on Binance, gradually fostering the mentality that shorting newly listed coins on Binance is profitable. However, most retail investors are often late to the game, entering the market at the tail end of trends, whether bullish or bearish. Therefore, if you have not previously profited from shorting new coins on Binance, it is advisable not to pursue such trades now. I believe Binance is likely to look for an opportunity to harvest these latecomers, as the market sentiment has reached a certain level.
I advise everyone that trading contracts is an exceptionally challenging skill, as there are numerous ways for the “scythe” to harvest your funds, especially with leverage involved. The probability of winning against this “scythe” in that market is nearly zero. If you do not have long-term experience in secondary-level profits, I do not recommend engaging in the contract market, whether going long or short. It is better to invest in blue-chip spot assets honestly and pursue alpha on-chain.
Will there still be altcoin seasons in the future? Here are three aspects to analyze:
1. Market liquidity is gradually being siphoned off by Binance. In 2024, Binance has launched at least dozens of VC coins, each with a circulating market capitalization of several billion and an FDV exceeding tens of billions, slowly unlocking and absorbing market liquidity. This constitutes a chronic poison.
2. In January 2025, Binance reportedly sold $8 billion worth of mainstream currencies, which were then allocated as fines to the U.S. Department of Justice, SEC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, effectively removing market liquidity from several U.S. regulatory bodies.
3. Once the BTC ETF is approved, Wall Street’s funds can acquire BTC directly through the ETF without going through Binance, meaning that these funds will not flow into altcoins on exchanges.
The above analyses are subjective opinions and may not be accurate.
Finally, here are a few pieces of advice for novice traders:
When engaging in trading, focus on narratives and angles, such as Elon Musk renaming X or figures like Trump; if the narrative has international appeal, the potential ceiling will be higher. The height of this ceiling determines the amount of capital you can engage. Pay attention to positions and allocations, and monitor smart wallets that continue to buy, as they often signal further upward movement.
Market intuition is also vital. After trading frequently, you will quickly recognize when to act and make rapid decisions regarding position sizing and profit-taking strategies.
Ensure you have capital ready on-chain; once a trading opportunity arises, you should be able to make quick decisions within seconds. Timing is also a critical factor in determining your position and profit or loss.
Always review your trades. Each coin should be analyzed daily to extract new insights and rectify any previous misconceptions. Understand when to increase your position and when to take profits early, among other strategies. Your mindset ultimately dictates your potential.
New traders do not need to overcomplicate things; mastering the basics can lead to profitability, and not every expert relies on complicated strategies; some achieve high win rates with just a few tactics.