Whales keep buying Bitcoin (BTC), storing more coins in large-scale wallets. At the same time, the share of retail holders is falling.
Market-eating whales with large wallets are back, and have accelerated their buying in the past few weeks. Bitcoin (BTC) now flows out of retail wallets and moves to wallets with over 10K BTC. The exact type of entities remain unknown, as holders in this range also contain exchange wallets. However, there is a shift to building BTC reserves, in addition to anonymous large-scale wallets.
Based on data from Glassnode, the cohort of whales with large-scale wallets now have a 0.6 points accumulation score, up from 0.5 points just a week ago. The trend coincides with selling from wallets holding less than 1 BTC, showing a clear split between retail accumulation and whale buying.
Large-scale buyers have always been able to drive out retail from the market, as they can also afford to hold through consolidation. The recent 30% drawdown has scared away retail, leading to several capitulations. At the same time, buyers with both strategic and long-term outlooks continued accumulating BTC. The accumulation behavior coincides with the ‘Buy’ signal from the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, which still shows BTC is not ready for an immediate rally.
Whales switch to net accumulation
The recent price levels of BTC between $80,000 and $85,000 caused a shift to net whale accumulation. Selling was more dominant during recent local highs above $90,000. This time, almost daily buying happens at the lower price range.
Data from ChainExposed shows buying was highly active even at price levels of $84,000. The recent buying behavior is more strategic and not driven by FOMO. The Bitcoin fear and greed index is at 44 points, still signaling fearful behavior, but whale accumulation remains unaffected.
Whales are mostly buying in the past weeks, after BTC shifted to a lower range between $80,000 and $85,000. | Source: Chain Exposed
The recent accumulation trend recalls the period from July to October 2024, when BTC moved sideways, with no dramatic news to spark a rally. Once the post-election narrative was established, whales returned to selling, especially at prices above $100K.
The shift to net buying happened in March, just as BTC moved to a lower tier. For almost all whale cohorts, the past year resulted in net selling. In the past month, ‘Humpback whales’, the largest holders, added a net 1,048 BTC, while whales with under 10K coins expanded their holdings by 53,918 BTC.
Shark holders, with 100 to 1,000 BTC are the most active traders. In March, those traders started divesting, shedding 31,003 BTC on the market, as shown in BGeometrics data. Sharks started accumulating BTC more aggressively in the last quarter of 2024, surpassing other buyers. Currently, those recent cohorts of buyers are locking in gains and waiting for a lower accumulation price.
BTC remains weak despite whale buying
BTC whale accumulation and coins flowing into treasuries do not have an immediate effect on the market price. BTC only regained positions to $85,004.12, still mostly driven by derivative trading.
Whale deals are completed through OTC traders or private deals, though some buying still happens on the open market. The behavior of whales recalls previous parts of the BTC cycle when prolonged periods of sideways trading coincided with accumulation.
The trend of large-scale holders continued to deepen in 2024, shifting to corporate holdings. In the past month, corporate holdings expanded rapidly to 3.15M BTC, driven by more purchases from Strategy and Mara Holdings.
Whale accumulation usually precedes BTC rallies. At this stage of the cycle, it is uncertain how long the accumulation stage would go on, as whales have varying intentions for buying more BTC.
BTC derivative trading is more cautious, with open interest falling to $23.53B. After a series of rapid liquidations, traders are still cautious when accumulating new liquidity. The Bitcoin volatility index is at over 2.7%, close to its highest level for the past six months. The current choppy trading conditions remain risky for retail traders but offer acquisition opportunities for whales.
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