Bitcoin suffered a negative event in Mentougou last night, directly breaking through all, continuing the downward trend, and hitting a low of 58200. It’s rare to see such a big drop at the end of the month in so many years. Bitcoin dropped 14000 in one wave, which is a good thing as it accelerates risk release and sets the stage for the second half of the year.
The recent negative factors include: 1) Delayed interest rate cuts. 2) K-factory selling coins. 3) Mentougou compensation yesterday.
All of the above points have some uncertainty. The timing of the interest rate cut may not necessarily be delayed, and there is a bottom line for both Mentougou selling and miner selling, which are not fundamental changes.
Therefore, it is believed that during the stage of oscillating downward, it is important to gradually buy at three positions, with a focus on Bitcoin, and only buy on negative news, not on positive news. Because every bull market starts with negative news, it is usually best to buy less and resist the urge to buy. The lower the price, the lower the risk.
The appearance of a single-day 5% large negative line for BTC is definitely a good thing. Short-term, it has entered the oversold stage, which may stop for 2-3 days, and even if it falls further, it will be pulled back. The mid-term stabilization still needs time, but the short-term fluctuations increase opportunities for operation. The short-term pressure range is 61770-62490, and the short-term support range is 58850-57560.
At present, the trend of Bitcoin has basically reached the bottom, and altcoins have also shown signs of improvement. When Bitcoin plummeted to around 58000 at 4 a.m., only Bitcoin created a new low, while altcoins did not follow, indicating that they may have bottomed out. Some promising altcoins can be entered in batches.
In July, there are two major events to look forward to: the launch of the ETH ETF and Trump’s attendance at the BTC 2024 Conference in Nashville on July 25th. These are the biggest BTC events of the year and present good opportunities for layout during the market correction.