Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin, after a disappointing performance in June, is expected to rebound in July. Analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s price fell by 7% last month. Coinglass has been monitoring Bitcoin’s monthly returns since 2013, and historical data shows that Bitcoin usually performs poorly in June, with an average decrease of 0.35%. However, historically, July has been a strong month for Bitcoin, often making up for losses in June.
Why does Bitcoin recover in July?
Cryptocurrency market analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin typically experiences a strong rebound in July after a weak June. Martinez noted that after a negative growth in June, Bitcoin’s average increase in July is 7.42%. This pattern is supported by data, which shows that in 7 out of the past 11 Julys, Bitcoin has increased by at least 8%, reinforcing the mid-year recovery trend. Visit NEWSLINKER for the latest tech news.
Another analyst, Murad, shared with his 103,000 social media followers that over the past six years, Bitcoin has consistently increased by at least 28% in the first few weeks of July. This historical performance has sparked optimism among Bitcoin investors, who are hopeful for similar results this year.
What could affect July’s performance?
Compared to previous years, there are several factors that could make July more complex for Bitcoin. Analysts are cautious about the large amount of Bitcoin being sold by the German government and the upcoming repayment of the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange. The repayment of Mt. Gox is expected to begin in early July, involving the return of approximately $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin to creditors, which could increase market selling pressure.
Despite these concerns, some analysts believe that the impact of the Mt. Gox repayment may not be as severe as expected. They estimate that only about $4 billion of the $8.5 billion may enter the spot market, which could alleviate some downward pressure on the Bitcoin price.
Key insights for investors
Investment returns:
Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin performs strongly in July, often offsetting losses from June. Based on past data, analysts predict an average increase of about 7.42% in July. The potential selling pressure from the Mt. Gox repayment could affect performance in July. Approximately $4 billion of the $8.5 billion Mt. Gox repayment could enter the market, reducing the expected impact.
Conclusion
Jonathan de Wet, Chief Investment Officer of ZeroCap, observed that despite various challenges, Bitcoin’s trading remains stable between $60,000 and $65,000. He expects Bitcoin to stay within this range, but warns that the Bitcoin price could drop to a key support level of around $57,000 due to the Mt. Gox repayment. Historically, Bitcoin performs strongest in November, with an average increase of 46.81% since 2013. While July typically favors Bitcoin, upcoming challenges may test this trend.
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