Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance level of $65,795, according to analyst Ali Martinez. With the accumulation of whales and the selling off by long-term holders, a breakthrough in Bitcoin could lead to $78,700.
Ali Martinez states that Bitcoin is on the edge of a price increase, with a key resistance level approaching. The analyst points out that $65,795 is a crucial resistance level, and if broken, it could surge to $78,700. This analysis is based on Glassnode’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) extreme deviation pricing range, which highlights important support and resistance areas.
The $65,795 resistance level is marked by the +0.5 standard deviation line on the MVRV extreme deviation pricing band. Historically, this level has posed a challenge for Bitcoin. For example, in April 2024, Bitcoin approached +1 standard deviation but couldn’t sustain this level, leading to a correction.
History of whale accumulation in July
Bitcoin’s historical performance also supports optimistic prospects. Analyst Ali Martinez points out that Bitcoin tends to experience a strong recovery in July after a negative growth in June. On average, Bitcoin has a return rate of 7.98% in July, with a median return rate of 9.60%. This pattern increases optimism about Bitcoin’s potential breakout.
Another positive signal comes from the accumulation of Bitcoin by large investors. According to a recent alert from CryptoQuant by CEO Ki Young Ju, whales are increasing their Bitcoin holdings.
As of June 30, 2024, the balance of large Bitcoin investors is 3,632,342 BTC, with a 30-day balance percentage change of 5.629%. This accumulation trend is usually associated with a rise in Bitcoin prices, indicating confidence among large investors.
Activity of long-term holders
However, the activity of long-term Bitcoin holders presents a contrasting picture. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that long-term holders sold 200,000 BTC in May and June, selling $10 billion and $1.2 billion in May and July, respectively. This selling trend has led to volatility in the Bitcoin market.
Despite these sell-offs, CryptoQuant considers $56,000 to be an important support level for Bitcoin. Any significant bearish fluctuations are expected to find support at this price level. As suggested by renowned analyst Willy Woo, failure to sustain this level could lead to further adjustments, possibly reaching $54,000. Woo attributes the recent retesting of prices to overleveraged positions and miner selling, indicating a need for stability in the market before a sustainable upward trend resumes.
