On Wednesday (June 26th), the price of Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above $61,000, with positive inflows into spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) providing momentum.
Data provided by Farside Investors showed that on Tuesday, the net inflows into the US-listed spot BTC ETF totaled $31 million, ending a streak of nearly $1.135 billion outflows over seven consecutive days.
The Monday pullback was primarily attributed to Mt. Gox’s announcement of an imminent distribution of Bitcoin to creditors, sparking concerns of an impending large-scale token selloff. However, these concerns gradually subsided, with many analysts quickly noting similar market reactions to previous Mt. Gox Bitcoin distribution announcements.
Matthew Kaye, Operations and Strategy Director at Intuition Systems, shared in a report with Kitco Crypto, “As often seen in the market, headlines announcing the distribution of Mt. Gox inventory mark the local bottom of this weeks-long BTC selloff. Altcoins found their local lows before BTC and have performed well since, and the meme sector is once again proving to be the best-performing sector in cryptocurrencies.”
“Although Mt. Gox’s unresolved situation may initially seem bearish, the fact is that these claims have been ongoing for ten years, and most of the selloff may already be priced in,” he added. “Furthermore, there has been more selling in the past few weeks, likely from those intending to buy back at lower prices.”
“This means that whatever Mt. Gox and the German government sell, it is only providing entry liquidity,” Kaye concluded. “As the market eventually puts the Gox event behind it, the era of irrational bearishness is finally coming to an end. It’s always best not to think that cryptocurrencies are dead, and buying on the dip is often a buying opportunity.”
Cryptocurrency analysts generally agree with Kaye’s viewpoint, with most predicting a soon-to-come rise in Bitcoin based on technical analysis and key indicators.
Market analyst Ali Martinez released a chart focusing on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating a double-digit percentage increase following oversold area sales.
Martinez wrote on Twitter, “Imagine having an indicator that signals the best times to buy #Bitcoin on dips…Keep it simple, study the daily $BTC RSI.”
Cryptocurrency giant Moustache pointed out that the fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies previously sent a “fear” signal, while Bitcoin retested the previous cycle’s all-time high, providing a strong bullish signal for future price performance.
Faibik team leader offered a more cautious analysis of the price trend, stating, “For the past four months, $BTC has been moving within the green box between support and resistance at 60k and 70k.”
“Until Bitcoin breaks through these two levels, no clear conclusion can be drawn, so it’s best to wait and see. (Because trading is a game of patience.)” he said. “If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the 70k resistance level, we may see a 30-40% bullish wave. In a bearish scenario, if Bitcoin breaks the 60k support level and the weekly EMA21 level, it may touch the 50k level in the coming weeks.”
“And one more thing: as long as Bitcoin moves within the green box, it remains in a safe zone, and the Bitcoin bulls are completely in control,” he concluded.
Chief Investment Officer John Glover of Ledn also warned that Bitcoin could retrace to the mid-range of $50,000 before resuming its upward momentum.
Glover shared in a report with Kitco Crypto, “The fifth wave (orange line in the chart) is continuing as expected, and the fifth wave’s (ii) may completely retrace wave (i), which could lead to a retest of $565,000 before the next rebound.”
“Some people ask me if the third wave may not be complete, as shown by the yellow line in the chart,” he added. “This is possible, although it’s not my preferred wave count.”
“If that is indeed the case, then the final target for Wave 5 would be around $110,000 to $110,000, rather than $85,000 to $95,000,” he concluded. “Once the price reaches above $80,000, I will review the price trend to determine if the yellow count is more likely.”
