Morning Brief Polls Indicate Trumps 6 Lead Over Biden Bitcoins Potential Bottom in Sight

Top News
▌
Polls Show Trump Leads Biden by 6%
According to a poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Trump leads Biden by 6 percentage points among potential voters, putting greater pressure on Biden.
The poll by The New York Times/Siena College is one of the most closely watched polls in the American political arena.
The poll released on Wednesday showed that Trump’s approval rating is 49%, while Biden’s is 43%. The survey indicated that concerns about Biden’s age are the main reason for the reversal in the election. Nearly three-quarters of voters (about 74%) believe Biden is too old, a 5 percentage point increase from last week’s poll results.
▌
Bitcoin’s Correlation with S&P 500 Plummets, Indicating Potential Bottom
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped to 0.05, indicating market differentiation. Over the past five years, the two have been highly positively correlated during the pandemic and from the end of 2021 to 2022. At the beginning of 2024, both saw significant increases. However, while the SPX continues to hit new highs, BTC has been lingering around $60,000, occasionally dropping below this level. Since 2019, BTC and SPX have shown negative correlations four times, each time indicating local lows in Bitcoin prices.
Market Data
As of the time of writing, according to Coingecko data:
BTC recently traded at $60,226.03, with a daily change of -2.9%;
ETH recently traded at $3,294.82, with a daily change of -3.6%;
BNB recently traded at $556.89, with a daily change of -3.8%;
SOL recently traded at $140.56, with a daily change of -8.6%;
DOGE recently traded at $0.1183, with a daily change of -5.4%;
XPR recently traded at $0.4663, with a daily change of -3.7%.
Policy
▌
US Judge Rules Cryptocurrencies OHM and Klima as “Commodities” in Jafia LLC Fraud Case
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today announced that U.S. District Court Judge Mary Rowland in the Northern District of Illinois issued a summary judgment in the Jafia LLC fraud case, ordering Sam Ikkurty of Oregon and his company Jafia LLC to pay over $120 million in restitution to victims of what the agency called a “Ponzi scheme.”
Notably, Judge Rowland also stated, “The order finds not only that Bitcoin and Ethereum are commodities within the CFTC’s jurisdiction, but also that OHM and Klima, two virtual currencies, meet the definition of a commodity,” and pointed out that these virtual currencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, involve regulated futures trading. While OHM and Klima are smaller-scale cryptocurrencies compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, there has been ongoing controversy over which assets fall under the jurisdiction of securities (regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) or commodities (under CFTC jurisdiction).
▌
US Senator Cynthia Lummis: The U.S. Will Become the Country of Bitcoin
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the U.S. will become the country of Bitcoin.
▌
Opinion: MiCA Brings Clarity, But Stablecoin Restrictions Need Improvement
Jason Allegrante, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer at Fireblocks, wrote that the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which will come into effect this summer, is a significant milestone for the crypto industry. While MiCA wisely excludes decentralized smart contracts and NFTs, there are issues with the issuance and trading restrictions on stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and BUSD. The current limits of 1 million transactions or 200 million euros are insufficient to support current activity levels. The total market value of stablecoins globally is $162 billion, with 75% being USDT, USDC, and BUSD. These limits in the EU could cause significant disruption to the crypto ecosystem, especially in non-speculative use cases.
Blockchain Applications
▌
Taurus Partners with UAE’s First Digital Bank Zand for Digital Asset Custody and Tokenization
Blockchain technology company Taurus has signed an agreement with Zand, the UAE’s first fully licensed digital bank, to collaborate on digital asset custody, tokenization, and blockchain connectivity. Founded in 2022, Zand primarily serves enterprises, institutions, and wealth clients. Chairman Mohamed Alabbar is the founder of Emaar Properties, known for developing the Burj Khalifa and Dubai Mall. Zand plans to launch digital asset services covering cryptocurrencies, NFTs, tokenized securities, and digital currencies, and will utilize the Taurus-PROTECT wallet solution to provide institutional-grade digital asset custody services.
Cryptocurrency
▌
Bloomberg ETF Analyst: Bitwise Submits Revised S-1 Form, Spot Ethereum ETF Likely to Launch Soon
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote on the X platform that Bitwise Invest has submitted another revised S-1 form for its Ethereum ETF, and it is expected that more issuers will submit the form within the remaining time this week. It is believed that a spot Ethereum ETF product may launch later next week or in the week of July 15.
Another Bloomberg analyst, Eric Balchunas, commented, “No one really knows why the SEC is taking so long to process these forms, given the lack of comments, trading should be quick, but it may be a ‘problem’ issuer slowing it down, or just summer laziness/people on vacation. Still, all signs point to a launch this month, with more details to be revealed next week.”
▌
DeFi Tokens Fall 10%-20% This Week, Pendle Leads the Decline
This week, the decentralized finance (DeFi) market experienced significant volatility, with Pendle’s governance token falling by 20%, attracting market attention. The market has seen large fluctuations, so please exercise caution in risk management.
The total value locked (TVL) in the Pendle protocol dropped by $3 billion, with many users choosing to withdraw funds after they expire in June, rather than renewing them. Tokens of major DeFi platforms such as Aave (AAVE) and Lido (LDO) also saw simultaneous declines of 10%-15%.
In addition, a large investor transferred millions of dollars in tokens to Binance for sale, exacerbating market panic and liquidity changes. Mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) also performed poorly, further exacerbating the instability of the DeFi market.
▌
Over $88.32 Million Liquidated in the Past 12 Hours, Mainly Long Positions
Data shows that over $88.32 million has been liquidated in the past 12 hours, with long positions liquidated at $72.12 million and short positions at $16.20 million, mainly affecting long positions. Of this, BTC liquidations amounted to $21.02 million, and ETH liquidations amounted to $20.16 million.
▌
Carbon Emissions of Major Tech Companies Exceed Total Bitcoin Mining Emissions
Since 2019, the carbon emissions of major tech companies have exceeded the total emissions from Bitcoin mining. Amazon’s annual carbon dioxide emissions exceed the global Bitcoin mining emissions. In 2021, Amazon reported emissions of 71.54 million tons of carbon dioxide, while the estimated annual emissions from Bitcoin mining are 65.40 million tons. Other major tech companies such as Google and Microsoft have annual emissions of 14.30 million tons and 15.30 million tons, respectively, resulting in their total emissions far exceeding those of Bitcoin. Data shows that since 2019, the carbon emissions of major U.S. tech companies have surpassed the total emissions from global Bitcoin mining since 2014.
Key Economic Dynamics
▌
Probability of the Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in August at 91.2%
According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until September is 27.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 66.5% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 6.1%.
▌
ECB Board Member Stournaras: Two More Rate Cuts This Year Seems Reasonable
ECB board member Stournaras stated that two more rate cuts this year seem reasonable; recent data strengthens the case for further rate cuts; even with two more rate cuts, the central bank’s rates would still be at a restrictive level; one should not overly interpret the service inflation.
▌
“Fed Whisperer”: Fed Officials Hint at No Rush to Cut Rates
“Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos stated that rising inflation has made Fed officials lack confidence in cutting rates, and some policymakers at last month’s meeting called for close attention to signs that labor market weakness may be fading faster than expected. The minutes of the June meeting showed, “Several participants indicated that monetary policy should be prepared to respond to unexpected economic weakness at any time.” Officials also cited several economic developments, including slowing wage growth, declining business pricing power, and increased sensitivity of consumers to price increases, to support their expectation that inflation will continue to decline over the next year. The minutes indicated that officials were generally satisfied with their wait-and-see approach to rate changes and emphasized a range of views that could prompt the Fed to raise or lower rates. Coupled with recent public statements by Fed officials, the minutes suggest that they are unlikely to cut rates at the meeting later this month.
Encyclopedia
▌
What is Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS)?
DPoS is an evolution of the Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, aimed at providing enhanced scalability, efficiency, and democratic governance. Daniel Larimer proposed the concept of DPoS in 2014 as an enhancement of the traditional PoS consensus mechanism to improve efficiency and scalability. Larimer first shared his vision on the Bitcointalk forum, which led to the actual implementation of DPoS and the launch of BitShares in 2015.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, the content of the articles published is for information reference only and not as actual investment advice. Please establish the correct investment concept and be sure to increase risk awareness.