CoinDesk Report:
On Wednesday (October 23), the US dollar index maintained a bullish trend at 104.08, stimulated by the decline in the US stock market and the rise in US bond yields. Gold surged to $2,746, hitting a new all-time high, as Israel carried out a large-scale air strike in the suburbs of Beirut, killing an official who was expected to become the next leader of Hezbollah. Bitcoin, at $67,200, remained in a battle between bulls and bears and has yet to firmly break through the key resistance level of $70,000.
Article Source: Pepe Soha WeChat Official Account
Israel Strikes Hezbollah’s Next Leader, Launching Large-Scale Air Strikes on Beirut Suburbs
According to the Associated Press (AP News), Israel stated on Tuesday that an airstrike launched earlier this month in the suburbs of Beirut killed a Hezbollah official named Hashem Safieddine, who was widely expected to replace the long-time leader of the extremist group, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in September.
Hezbollah has not immediately confirmed Safieddine’s fate, as he is a clergyman.
According to Israel, Safieddine was killed in an attack in early October, which also resulted in the death of 25 other Hezbollah leaders. In recent months, Israel’s airstrikes in southern Lebanon have caused the deaths of several high-ranking Hezbollah leaders, plunging the organization into chaos.
Last week, Israel killed Hamas’ top leader, Yahya Sinwar, in the Gaza conflict.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during his visit to Israel on Tuesday, stated that Israeli leaders should “seize” the death of Sinwar as an opportunity to end the Gaza war and ensure the release of hostages taken in the deadly Hamas attack that triggered the war. Blinken also emphasized that Israel needs to take more action to help increase humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.
On Tuesday, the Beirut suburbs where Safieddine was killed were subjected to a series of new airstrikes, with one building completely destroyed. Israel claimed that the building housed Hezbollah facilities. The collapse of the building sent smoke and debris into the air, just a few hundred meters from where a Hezbollah spokesman had just briefed reporters on the location of the drone attack that destroyed Netanyahu’s residence over the weekend. No casualties have been reported so far.
Hezbollah’s chief spokesman, Mohammad Afif, stated that the organization was behind the drone attack on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s home in the coastal town of Caesarea on Saturday. Israel stated that both the prime minister and his wife were not at home during the attack.
Blinken’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders was his 11th visit to the region since the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel war. Just hours before Blinken’s arrival in Israel, Hezbollah fired a series of rockets into central Israel, triggering air raid sirens in densely populated areas and the international airport, but causing no apparent damage or casualties.
On Monday night, Israeli airstrikes destroyed several buildings across from Beirut’s largest public hospital, killing 18 people and injuring at least 60. The Israeli military stated that the airstrikes targeted Hezbollah, but did not provide detailed explanations, and stated that the airstrikes were not aimed at the hospital itself.
US Dollar Breaks Through 104 Level: Rise in US Bond Yields and IMF Growth Forecast Support
Currently, the market is betting that there is a high possibility of two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, but everything depends on future data.
The updated growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts favorably for the US economy, which helps the US economy continue to outperform other economies, thereby supporting the rise in US Treasury yields and the strength of the US dollar. This may prompt Federal Reserve officials to adopt a more cautious stance.
Higher Treasury yields are attracting foreign capital inflows, providing further support for the US dollar.
After a strong rise in 2021, the stock market is plummeting due to widespread profit-taking.
Geopolitical concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have intensified this risk-off environment.
As the US economy continues to outperform most other major economies, the divergence theme remains active.
US Dollar Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín stated that the US dollar index broke through the 200-day moving average, but the weakening buying momentum suggests that it may struggle to hold above this level. Therefore, the index may trade sideways in the short term.
The relative strength index (RSI) remains stable in the overbought zone, and the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) shows flat green bars.
Support levels are at 103.50, 103.30, and 103.00, while resistance levels are at 103.80, 104.00, and 104.30.
Gold Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bruce Powers stated that gold prices continued to show strength on Tuesday, approaching the day’s high and closing strongly above the upper third of the trading range. In addition, the high on Monday and the previous high were $2,741. Gold prices are currently above this level, which is another sign of gold’s strength.
The main target price for gold of $2,815 comes from a bull market flag pattern that gold broke through last week. Gold prices have continued to rise after the breakout. However, no one can guarantee that gold will reach the target price of $2,815 or which path it will take to reach that target price.
On Wednesday, gold prices face potential resistance near the top line of the ascending channel. Gold has not clearly broken through this channel, which means it may still act as a resistance zone. Furthermore, if gold prices decisively rise above Tuesday’s high, it may break through the channel.
The target for the extension retracement level after the decline from the peak in March 2022 is $2,754, which is the 250% extension retracement level of the decline in 2022. This may or may not mean anything. The reaction of gold prices near this price area should provide clues. The next higher target for the same retracement level is the 261.8% extension level at $2,808.
This coincides with the target area of the flag pattern and, when combined with the 200% extension target of the September 2011 decline at $2,797, indicates a significant resistance zone between $2,797 and $2,815. Since the $2,797 target comes from a very long-term measurement, it may have greater significance, and close attention should be paid if it approaches this target.
If resistance is seen after the high on Tuesday, the low point may be the recent support level of $2,719. If it fails to hold, it may eventually test the support level near the 20-day moving average of $2,664, which is close to the lower channel line. However, the characteristics of the pullback should lay the foundation for the next rise in gold prices. The recent strength seen is a bullish continuation trend that started with a breakout of a multi-year bottom in February.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CoinTelegraph pointed out that Bitcoin closed above $69,000 last week, reaching the highest closing price since early June, but fell below $67,000 on Tuesday and then rebounded slightly. The short-term decline did not scare away investors, as according to Farside Investors data, on October 21, US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of $294.3 million.
Usually, after hovering within a range for a long time, a strong trigger is needed to break out of the consolidation price trend. The upcoming US election may become a catalyst for a new trend in Bitcoin. Many believe that the re-election of former US President Trump in November could drive Bitcoin higher.
Although the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains strong, it is showing signs of weakness in the short term. Emperor, a well-known opinion leader, told his followers that the $62,000 to $63,000 range might be a buying opportunity.
Bitcoin has seen a sharp decline from above the $70,000 resistance level, indicating bearish activity at higher levels.
The $66,500 to $65,000 area may become a downside support level. If the price rebounds strongly from this support area, it will indicate the formation of higher lows. This would enhance the prospect of a rebound to the $72,000 level. Buyers are likely to face significant resistance in the $72,000 to $73,777 area.
If a breakout occurs, the bullish momentum will weaken, and if it closes below $65,000, Bitcoin may fall to the 50-day moving average support level of $62,117.
