Coin World reported:
On Friday, October 25th, the US Dollar Index fell to 104.05, while the price of gold remained strong at $2,735 and Bitcoin surged to over $68,000. Another big event occurred in the Middle East as Israel launched intense airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon, accused of committing another “massacre.” US economic data was mixed, with the S&P PMI exceeding expectations, but employment numbers in the US slightly declining for the third consecutive month.
Israel launches intense airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon
According to Al Jazeera, Israeli tanks bombarded the overwhelmed Kamel Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza and opened fire on the hospital with machine guns, arresting most of the doctors, causing life-saving surgeries to come to a halt. Israel attacked a shelter converted from a school in Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, resulting in at least 17 Palestinians killed, including an 11-month-old baby, and 42 people injured.
AP News reported that as the attacks took place, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Israel has achieved its goal of “effectively dismantling” Hamas, and negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages will resume in the “coming days.”
According to the Oda Hospital, which receives wounded patients, the attacks also injured 42 people in the Nuseirat refugee camp. Hospital records show that among the deceased, there were 13 children under the age of 18 and 3 women.
The Israeli military claimed that their targets were armed Hamas members inside the school, but provided no evidence. In recent months, Israel has targeted shelters converted from several schools, claiming that their targets are armed militants hiding among civilians. These attacks often result in the deaths of women and children.
In the past 24 hours, the Israeli military caused the death of at least 19 people in Lebanon, bringing the total death toll since the start of the war to 2,593 in Gaza. The Gaza Government Media Office stated that Israel’s military attacks on Jabalia and the blockade in northern Gaza have entered their 20th day, resulting in the death of over 770 Palestinians and injuring 1,000.
Jewish Voice for Peace, based in the United States, called on the US government to impose an arms embargo on Israel and likened its war on Gaza to a “massacre.” The organization stated in a statement, “Many of our parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents survived or perished in the Nazi death marches, and we grew up in the shadow of the Holocaust. Israel is currently carrying out a massacre, deliberately carrying out large-scale killings of the Palestinian people, using weapons provided by the United States.”
Mixed US economic data leads to profit-taking in the US dollar
The US dollar’s retreat this time was attributed to profit-taking after the release of mixed US economic data. Despite the positive signal from the US Standard & Poor’s PMI flash data, indicating strong business activity, the US dollar still declined and is expected to consolidate in the next trading day.
The US October S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 54.3, slightly higher than expected, with the services PMI expanding to 55.3, while the manufacturing PMI continued to contract for the third consecutive month.
Although the overall PMI has improved, US employment numbers have slightly declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting the uncertainty leading up to the upcoming presidential election.
The US Department of Labor stated on Thursday that the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending October 19th decreased by 15,000 to 227,000. The decrease in jobless claims caused by Hurricane Helen offset the significant increase caused by Hurricane Milton.
The Fed Watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows a 90% possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its November 7th meeting.
Meanwhile, the 10-year benchmark interest rate in the US remains below the peak near 4.20% reached on Wednesday.
US Dollar Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín stated that the US dollar index weakened after surging above the 200-day moving average, indicating a weakening buying momentum and excessive expansion.
According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the index is preparing for a sideways consolidation to alleviate the overbought condition.
Key support levels include 104.50, 104.30, and 104.00, while resistance levels are located at 104.70, 104.90, and 105.00.
Gold Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bruce Powers stated that the price of gold reached a new high of $2,758 earlier on Thursday before reversing. Sellers took control and pushed the price below the previous day’s low of $2,719, closing at that level. This short-term bearish price action typically leads to a certain degree of pullback. The extent of the pullback will provide clues to the potential strength or weakness of gold. On Friday, the price of gold rebounded to $2,735.
Please note that resistance levels are near the combination of the 250% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,754 and the top rising parallel trendline. However, considering the potential for higher targets, it is expected that gold will continue to rise above this week’s high after a period of consolidation or pullback. On October 15th, gold recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern after testing the 20-day moving average as support.
The measured target of the flag pattern points to an ultimate target of $2,815, but it is not just the flag that identifies this price area, as two additional Fibonacci measurements confirm it. One points to $2,797, and the other points to $2,808. The combination of these price levels generates a potential target area from $2,797 to $2,815.
A breakout on the daily chart, whether up or down, will indicate the next direction rather than false signals. The high or resistance level on Friday is at $2,743, while the low point is at $2,714. More importantly, the high on Wednesday at $2,758 and the low at $2,709 provide more significant price levels to gauge strength or weakness. Key support levels are the recent trend breakout area at $2,686 and the 20-day moving average at $2,670, both of which could provide strong support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CoinTelegraph pointed out that on October 22nd, the net inflows of the US Bitcoin spot ETF turned negative for the first time in two weeks, with Bitcoin prices dropping by 3% the previous day. Despite expectations of a cooling-off period for institutional investors, data shows that net inflows into the ETF surged to $192.4 million on October 23rd.
Positive inflows were observed in Bitcoin’s negative daily chart, indicating that institutions remain bullish regardless of short-term declines.
Meanwhile, independent cryptocurrency analyst Moustache clarified the golden moment indicator for Bitcoin, which has recently turned bullish.
The analyst claims that the indicator has successfully predicted the start of a bull market four times in the past four years, making it a reliable tool.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin immediately rebounded to above $67,000 after presenting a V-shaped pattern from the first order block or demand zone.
For Bitcoin, the most optimistic scenario is an immediate rise from $64,500 after the cryptocurrency reflected a “fractal” pattern from July.
Currently, the price trend of Bitcoin is in line with expectations, gaining further bullish confirmation after breaking above the resistance level of $67,800 in the daily candlestick chart.
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Israel launches intense bombardment on Gaza and Lebanon Gold retreats to 2735 supporting Bitcoins surge above 68000
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