Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a rebound from its recent lows below $68,000, bringing relief to the market. Short-term demand remained strong during the recent dip, but the question remains whether the bull market will maintain its momentum and reach new highs.
To gain insight into global interest, distribution, and popular Bitcoin topics, Google Trends can be a valuable tool. However, it’s important to note that peak search counts are not necessarily indicative of an upcoming bull market. Instead, they may signal a blow-off top, where media attention is at its highest but a correction is imminent. Bull rallies often occur after a period of sustained but relatively low interest in a narrative.
Interestingly, Bitcoin searches tend to be a lagging indicator. During the 2024 bull market, searches for the term “bitcoin” peaked in March. By May, search volumes for the same term had decreased by 50%, although they remained higher than during the bear market.
Retail buying of Bitcoin is still occurring, but this time it’s not driven by mass adoption. Instead, it seems that whales may be influencing the trends. Google search results at the end of March indicated a market peak, which was followed by a price correction and a decrease in search trends.
There is also a divergence in Bitcoin audiences. While web and news searches for the term have declined, YouTube searches continue to maintain a higher baseline. This suggests that the message of Bitcoin is still spreading through spoken media, potentially reaching new buyers.
The current bull market has seen more involvement from crypto insiders and less mass hype. However, there has been a slight increase in searches for “crypto” in the past three weeks, which has halted the decline.
In late 2023, BTC was already expanding, but mass searches were slower. This is likely because Bitcoin was already a known opportunity, and fewer people needed to research it from scratch. The current interest levels are seen as a “bull market waiting to happen,” aligning with predictions of new rallies in June and July.
The Bitcoin narrative remains alive and well for insiders, branching out into various directions in 2024. The focus is currently on the Bitcoin ETF narrative, which has overshadowed other smaller trends for crypto insiders. BTC market prices have decreased from their all-time high, and blockchain activity has become more subdued. The narratives surrounding ordinals, tokens, and Runes have also slowed down.
Transactions from institutional and medium-range whale wallets with transactions above $1M are starting to pick up again. However, active addresses have slowed to 220K per day, compared to their usual range of above 500K active wallets.
While smaller holders are not moving their coins, larger investors are indicating a shift in direction. This pattern of institutional and whale wallets moving funds has previously occurred before BTC reached its all-time high in Q1.
One reason for the low retail interest in Bitcoin is its lack of accessibility. With its high price and occasional high transaction fees, retail buyers are looking elsewhere. Searches for meme tokens demonstrate interest in crypto and bullish expectations. Meme tokens also offer the potential for entry at a lower price and higher returns.
Searches for tokens like “Pepe token” and “dogwifhat” surged in early May, preceding the expansion of these two tokens. Searches for “meme coin” have been growing since the beginning of 2024 and have seen an upward trend since May. YouTube searches for “meme coin” are even more prevalent, indicating that new retail investors are gaining exposure to the latest launches. This suggests that crypto is spreading to new demographics.
In summary, Bitcoin has experienced a bounce from its recent lows, providing relief to the market. Google Trends can offer insights into global interest, distribution, and popular Bitcoin topics. However, peak search counts may not necessarily indicate an upcoming bull market. Bitcoin searches tend to be a lagging indicator, and retail buying is currently being driven by whales rather than mass adoption. The Bitcoin narrative remains strong for insiders, particularly in relation to the Bitcoin ETF. While blockchain activity has slowed, transactions from institutional and whale wallets are increasing. Retail interest in Bitcoin has declined, with meme tokens gaining popularity among retail investors. Overall, the current interest levels suggest a potential upcoming bull market, with new rallies predicted for June and July.
