Possibility of Bitcoin Option Indicating a Surge to 80000 After the Election at 20

CoinTime News reports:
The implied volatility of Bitcoin options has increased by nearly 50% before and after the US election.
Option traders predict that there is a 20% chance that BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
With only two weeks left until the US presidential election,
Bitcoin (BTC)
option traders remain bullish and expect the price to reach $80,000 by November.
Nearly 71% of people point out that the election is a key market uncertainty.
As of November 8, FWD IV (forward implied volatility)
This means that the market expects prices to fluctuate significantly before and after the US election. Therefore, with institutional investors hedging risks, the volatility may be upward or downward.
After two key events, the expected market volatility is expected to gradually decrease: the election (November 5) and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (November 8). The southward movement of FWD IV after November 8 indicates this.
Bullish options bets
However, despite election concerns, as recently pointed out by cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital, the BTC options market has maintained a bullish outlook. It
specified.
“The short-term implied volatility peaks on the election day, 10 trading volumes away from the previous expiration date, and tends to be bullish options rather than bearish options, although BTC is about 8% lower than its historical high.”
At the time of writing, Deribit
data
depicts a similar picture, with bullish options (betting on a rebound in future BTC prices) dominating bearish options (betting on a decline) for contracts expiring on November 29.
Option traders predict that there is a 20% chance that BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
In response to this positioning, Andre Dragosch, Head of Bitwise Europe Research, said it is an expectation of a “bullish outcome.”
“This supports the assumption that Bitcoin option traders are generally positioning for a bullish outcome.”
Donald Trump can be said to be the most crypto-friendly candidate. On the polling and prediction website Polymarket, he maintains a 20-point lead over Kamala Harris.
That is to say, if BTC rises to $80,000 and breaks the psychological level of $70,000, nearly $7 billion in short positions will be squeezed.
However, in the ongoing US earnings season, the short-term performance of BTC has weakened. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $67,000, about 10% below its all-time high (ATH) of $737,000.