Beijing Coin News Report:
This morning, BTC continued its downward trend, slipping below the June 25th low of 58.3k and briefly dipping below 58k. Despite this bearish onslaught, it remains nearly $2000 above the frontline of 56.5k established on May 1, 2024.
Within the industry, major media outlets have been anticipating a looming crisis akin to “a storm gathering over a tall building.” The primary concern stems from Mt. Gox initiating payouts this month, compounded by governments like those of the United States and Germany transferring large seized BTC sums to exchanges, indicating potential imminent large-scale sales. As a result, the crisis of selling pressure has brewed, forming a localized issue in the short term.
Bitcoin has initiated a new round of decline, with trading prices falling below the $60,000 zone.
The price is now below $61,500 and the 100-hour simple moving average. On the hourly chart of BTC/USD, a connecting bearish trend line has formed, with resistance around $60,000 (data sourced from Kraken).
The currency pair may struggle to breach the resistance at $60,850, potentially setting a new upward trend.
Bitcoin’s current price is below $61,500 and the 100-hour simple moving average. On the hourly BTC/USD chart, a connected bearish trend line has also formed, with resistance at $60,000. A significant uptick could encounter resistance near $60,000 and the trend line. The initial key resistance is around $60,850, along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the downtrend between the high of $63,798 and the low of $57,890.
The next critical resistance could be at $61,500. A clear breakthrough of this level might initiate a steady rise, pushing the price to test resistance at $62,250. Further gains could potentially propel BTC towards the $63,500 resistance in the short term.
Will BTC’s losses deepen?
Failure to breach the $60,000 resistance zone could lead to further declines. Immediate support lies around $58,250. The first major support level is at $58,000. Another support is forming near $57,800, with the possibility of short-term decline to the $56,500 support area.
Technical Indicators:
Hourly MACD – Currently accelerating in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Key Support Levels – $58,250, followed by $58,000.
Key Resistance Levels – $59,250 and $60,000.
Perhaps today, being a U.S. holiday, the market is closed. The timing of this bearish move might not be coincidental.
The reason is simple: prominent U.S. BTC ETFs, considered pillars of the market, are on holiday today. With no trading, there’s no buying pressure. Choosing such a holiday for a bearish move is unexpectedly strategic!
Two weeks have passed, and I’ve been wondering what comes next. This bull market and bear market cycle from 2020 to 2024 have significant differences! Some crypto funds suggest that the previous $50k bottom estimate was too conservative; now they’re eyeing $40k!
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that BTC will hit new highs next month, in August, and could surpass $100k during the U.S. presidential elections in November. By the end of 2025, targets range from $150k to $200k. People are pondering whether BTC will plummet to $40k, establish another bottom near $60k, or soon break through $100k?
This isn’t like the bull market of 2020-21 (infinite QE) nor the bear market of 2021-22 (industry deleveraging).
1. Structured Bull Market: Some tokens with liquidity and funding plans can rise, but most projects have exhausted funds and expectations over the past three years, making it difficult to rally (typical examples are certain public chains and last bull to bear transitions of defi and gamefi projects). Manta, Alt Layer, and other impressive projects shine here, aligning with favorable conditions.
2. BTC ETFs: Americans aren’t naive; they prefer only BTC and have little interest in altcoins.
3. Conservative Exchange Strategies in a Regulatory Background: Few projects like Binance’s rocket launch, or OKX’s handling of SHIB, have been attempted, and Ponzi schemes lasting over a month are rare.
4. High FDV, Low Circulation: FTX and SBF excel in this area. This generation and exchanges seem to struggle, and new coins, usually a showstopper in a bull market, are particularly poor this time, especially OKX new coins, which are all VC trash.
The biggest problem faced by altcoins: previous project and investor dumping (due to rapid cash burn). Many VC projects are still waiting to go public, so a market may only develop once these projects conclude.
This bull market round will be very challenging,
Buying in batches
Although toads may wish for a black swan feast, more than one black swan may appear in a round market. This round market is expected to last longer than usual, with both bulls and bears, so patience is key. It is crucial to strategically lay out the mainstream according to Bitcoin’s position, and to operate with altcoins. Bitcoin in high positions can only be reduced rather than purchased in haste, and if full of warehouses, it would be trapped and with low and may ,e. Can
