According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount of cryptocurrencies on the entire network exceeded $220 million (with long positions accounting for $200 million), and nearly 90,000 people were liquidated. The industry’s major media outlets have been preparing for the impending crisis. The main reason is that Mt.Gox started to compensate this month, and on top of the continuous selling pressure for three months, it was revealed that the US and German governments transferred a large amount of confiscated stolen BTC to exchanges, indicating that they are preparing to sell off. As a result, the crisis of selling pressure has been brewing and has become a short-term consensus.
Today is Thursday, a holiday in the United States, and the market is closed for the day.
It’s not unreasonable for the short sellers to make a move at this time. The reason is simple: the US BTC ETFs, which are considered to be one of the pillars of the market, are on holiday today. When they are on holiday, there are no new purchases. The short sellers chose such a holiday to launch a surprise attack, which is somewhat similar to the special dates when religious countries attack each other when their defenses are down.
The wind does not blow all morning, and the rain does not last all day. A surprise attack will result in multiple defeats. Playing dirty tricks is just for temporary gain. A stable and steady strategy is the path to long-term victory.
Cryptocurrency funds have said that the previous estimate of the bottom at $50,000 was too conservative, and now they see it at $40,000.
According to data analysis reports, the surrender of miners indicates a bottom signal.
Standard Chartered Bank said that next month, in August, BTC will reach a new high, and during the US presidential election in November, it will surpass $100,000. By the end of 2025, it is still expected to reach the target range of $150,000 to $200,000.
You see, this is a typical market sentiment in the “faith-denial” stage. It’s a bit schizophrenic.
BTC Market:
It broke the previous 4-hour low in the morning, and the next target is the previous daily low of $56,500. This is a very good trend structure, why?
Secondary bearish waves in a bull market have time windows. For example, in the last bull market, it took about 40 days from the second sell-off at $59,000 to the bottom at $28,000. Now, it has been almost a month. If the entity closes this month, it will officially confirm a monthly downtrend. Then we can’t talk about a bull market anymore because secondary waves in a bull market last at most two months, and if they last longer, they will evolve into primary waves, and the entire major trend will reverse. So, as I said above, the current structure is very good because the correction is taking place in a relatively short time and will not affect the larger structure. The ideal way is to break the previous daily low, form a daily reversal pattern, establish a turning point, and then continue to move towards the previous high on the weekly chart.
We absolutely cannot continue to grow the central pivot downward because both timing and pricing do not allow it. If we continue to grow the central pivot downward, with an additional month of correction time, there is a high probability that we will drop below the 250-day moving average of $54,000, and the bull market will bid farewell directly. Although I think this possibility is unlikely, we cannot consider it. Overall, we need to observe. All timeframes are showing a downward trend without any divergence, and only the 30-minute frame is in a pending confirmation state. Be careful and avoid catching falling knives.
You can also understand that we need to break the previous low and close the month with a bullish or doji candle in order to continue to be bullish. Otherwise, it’s game over!
Altcoins are at a turning point!
Currently, most retail investors have lost confidence. Whether it is market analysis or project evaluation, they will face criticism and opposition. The discussion on related topics is also very low. However, the market is quietly undergoing a restructuring for a new round of trends. The proportion of altcoins to Bitcoin’s market value is approaching the resistance line on the monthly chart. After reaching this line in the last bull market, altcoins experienced a major rally. Therefore, the probability of a market trend occurring between July and November is very high.
The current price of high-quality altcoins is considered a bottom range for the future. The entry of ETF funds for Ethereum is still pending, and market confidence still exists.
Worst-case scenario:
1. If the market continues to plummet in the second half of this year and the first quarter of next year, then it is best to give up!
2. If the main players are not willing to leave any profits for retail investors, then there is nothing to say. Let the market makers be forever accompanied by their Bitcoin and Ethereum.
A prolonged downturn often breeds opportunities. The sentiment of retail investors and the state of the market will not deceive people.
Some people, who haven’t accumulated much bottom positions yet, are already thinking about how to sell and escape the top all day long. In my opinion, this is like trying to reach the moon before learning to walk. Howard Marks once said, it’s better to sell well than to buy well, but any selling that is not good enough can be compensated by buying well.
1. If you have just entered the market, it is better to accumulate bottom positions honestly.
2. For novice investors, it is best to develop the ability to build low-cost positions.
By doing these two things, you will have an advantage over others starting at the same line and increase your chances of success.
