To See Success Shanzhai Coins Must Await New Highs of Bitcoin and Ethereum

CoinWorld reports:
Why have I always believed that the crazy bull market has not arrived yet? Based on the long-term analysis of BTC and the trend of ETH/BTC, comparing it with the last bull market.


In the comparative trend chart from 2019 to 2022, it can be found that:
1. In 2020, two months after the halving, BTC started the third wave of the main rise.
2. Bitcoin market dominance (BTC-D) peaked in December 2020, seven months after the halving, and then began to decline.
3. ETH/BTC also started to show strong momentum after hitting bottom in December 2020. As the king of altcoins, ETH’s trend began to rise strongly.
4. In this bull market, the pace of the trend is faster than the bull market in 2021, so it is speculated that BTC-D is expected to peak in October, six months after the halving, with a predicted range of 57%-60%.
5. The Ethereum ETF is expected to go online in July, and the estimated bottom time for ETH/BTC is expected to be earlier, but to make a big move, it still needs to wait until after October.
Why do altcoins only explode in the middle and late stages of the bull market?
1. The altcoin projects don’t have much money. From the bear market to the early stage of the bull market, they have to sell coins every month to pay salaries and expenses.
2. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, the big whales have made enough money on BTC, and only then will some speculative funds come to the altcoins to create a bubble season, which is both a carnival and a wave of harvesting.
I don’t agree with the view that there is no altcoin season in this bull market. There are very few items that can be sold when the market is hit. Only when the altcoin season is in full swing can the project parties sell at the best time.


How to deal with it?
1. Portfolio allocation: Before October 2024, 50% BTC, 30% ETH/SOL/BNB, 20% popular altcoins.
2. At the end of October, it is expected that the major third wave of BTC will be completed, with a configuration of 30% BTC, 40% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 30% popular altcoins.
3. At the end of December, it is expected that BTC will enter the top range, with a configuration of 30% USDT arbitrage, 30% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 40% popular altcoins.
4. At the end of March 2025, it is expected that the altcoin season will come to an end, with 90% USDT and 10% popular altcoins.
5. Starting in April 2025, liquidate and move on. This is only a conservative approach. If you want to make big profits, you still need a large position in altcoins, after all, altcoins have also fallen a lot. But the altcoin season is coming, and you still have to wait for BTC and ETH to break through new highs.
As of 8 a.m. today, the daily data of the exchange’s stock BTC has decreased slightly, but the “undigested stock” of nearly 30,000 BTC from nearly six years ago still exists, which means that the BTC transferred to the exchange in the past three weeks has almost not been purchased, indicating the current market’s lack of buying power.
The on-chain data is bleak, and the currency market has no intention of rising. Last night, Powell stated that inflation has made significant progress, but he is still unwilling to loosen his grip on whether to cut interest rates in September and when to start cutting.
Two aspects to consider the speech yesterday:
1. Powell’s speech is bullish, with gold rising and the US dollar index DXY falling. It should have risen, but BTC went in the opposite direction.
2. Yesterday’s ETF inflows were not significant. On the on-chain data side, although BTC did not continue to flow into the exchange in large quantities, the worrying thing is that stablecoins are showing signs of leaving the exchange. Therefore, although I am optimistic about the rebound in the general direction, we still need to guard against a final decline. This is also why I remind everyone to pay attention to good profit-taking and stop-loss in the short term, take profits when you should, and try not to hold on to losses. For those who have recently fallen sharply, such as $ETHFI, $WLD, $TAO, $ENA, not cutting losses will only lead to endless declines, and the more you are trapped, the more you will be reluctant to sell, which will tie up your capital utilization rate.
At 20:30 on Friday, the non-agricultural data will be released. The last time non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, it caused a lot of damage to the currency circle. This time it should be more normal. Although it looks very stressful, the more extreme it is, the more it will rebound. Currently, keep the current position below 50%, and you can continue to buy the dips when there is a big drop.
Inflation will always decrease, and problems will always be solved. Don’t fall today, and you can win tomorrow. (No contract leverage allowed!!!)
Later, I will bring you an analysis of leading projects in other races. If you are interested, you can follow. I will also periodically organize some cutting-edge information and project reviews. Welcome to all like-minded people in the currency circle to explore together.