US NonFarm Payrolls Revised Down Efforts to Facilitate Feds September Rate Cut Will Bitcoin Drop Below 50000 and Enter the 40000 Era

CoinDesk Report:


According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Matrixport’s latest weekly report indicated that the Federal Reserve may initiate an interest rate cut cycle in September or December during the upcoming FOMC meeting. Despite expectations of a rate cut providing favorable conditions, achieving them this year may prove challenging, though it has kept Bitcoin’s volatility relatively low.
Additionally, Bitcoin is temporarily relieved of selling pressure due to favorable factors such as monetary policy and the U.S. presidential election.
Yesterday, BTC briefly dipped to near $53,000 before rebounding above $56,000.
The crypto market experienced a widespread sell-off, dropping from a local high of $63,800 on July 2nd to a low of $53,300 on July 5th, with a mere 16% decline over the 4-day period. Compared to the severe declines of “519” in 2021, from a local high of $59,500 on May 10th to a low of $29,000 on May 19th, marking a 51% decline, “75” (July 5th) appears relatively minor.
Bitcoin is now only supported by a strong level close to $50,000, indicating significant bearish strength; breaking below this level could lead to a return to the $40,000 range. Is the bottom reached now? No, as a prolonged period of testing and seeking support is expected, with further downside likely after a minor rebound, forming strong resistance in the short term at $58,800-$60,000.
Last night’s non-farm payroll report caused significant market turmoil.


Data slightly exceeded expectations but showed a large decline compared to the previous month,
and more surprisingly,
there was a significant downward revision in non-farm payroll employment for the previous two months.
Average hourly earnings in June rose 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations but slipping from the previous 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.9%, also meeting expectations and marking the first time since 2021 that it fell below 4%.
The weakening employment data, coupled with poor manufacturing data from previous periods, appears to be preparing the ground for a September rate cut.
Bitcoin has suffered heavy losses this week, with the lowest point on July 5th hitting $53,269. Although it has since rebounded above $56,000, the potential three-month period for Mt. Gox’s entire compensation process could exert prolonged selling pressure on Bitcoin.
However, prior reports from Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn suggested that Mt. Gox’s selling pressure may be less than expected for three reasons. Whether this recent decline is due to Mt. Gox creditors selling or market panic remains unclear, necessitating continued observation.