OP_CAT’s revival in this bull market will determine the future direction of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
In anticipation of Bitcoin breaking the $70,000 mark, many players believe that if Bitcoin can surpass $70,000 and stabilize near this price level, the long-awaited bull market will officially begin.
In this optimistic atmosphere, important assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem have experienced an increase in value. The BRC-20 token $ORDI has seen a 25% increase in the past week, and $SATS has seen a 15% increase.
The Rune market has also been buzzing, with the Rune GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN, led by the new cat “Gizmo” by Bitcoin Puppets artist @lepuppeteerfou, rising to a market value of nearly $20 million after completion of all minting. Although @lepuppeteerfou himself denies any association with Rune, the market enthusiasm remains high.
The popularity of GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN has led to the emergence of two other “golden dogs”: KODA•FLUFFINGTON, featuring the dog “Koda” as the founder of NodeMonkes, and POOKA•CANNOT•BE•STOPPED, featuring the dog “POOKA” as the founder of OMB, which have both quickly surpassed the $1 million market value threshold that is difficult to break in the Rune market. KODA•FLUFFINGTON reached a peak value of nearly $4 million, while POOKA•CANNOT•BE•STOPPED reached a peak value of nearly $3 million.
Several leading assets in the Rune market have also experienced significant increases. PUPS•WORLD•PEACE and BILLION•DOLLAR•CAT have increased by up to 9 times since the end of September, and DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON has increased by up to 1 time. Just yesterday, @ord_io tweeted that an insider at Coinbase revealed that Coinbase is conducting internal security audits and regulatory compliance assessments on Rune, but they have not independently confirmed these rumors. This has further fueled speculation about the recent rise of Rune.
If the bull market is about to begin, what is the future prospect of the Bitcoin ecosystem based on the current situation?
The revival of OP_CAT on the Bitcoin mainnet is of significant importance because for the vision of “implementing smart contracts on the Bitcoin mainnet,” the current issue is not whether it can be achieved, but rather the decision of whether to do so.
The popularity of the Ordinals protocol last year undoubtedly contributed significantly to the opening of the Bitcoin ecosystem, but it only opened a small crack in the door. The consensus of the Ordinals protocol is just a subset of the Bitcoin consensus, which is why BRC-20 tokens and Rune, as Bitcoin-based FT protocols, can only be considered “inferior” compared to FT protocols on other chains, similar to NFTs, which can be infinitely fragmented.
The limitations in functionality and user experience of these protocols are attributed to the limitations of the Bitcoin consensus. The Bitcoin consensus has not been further opened, which has resulted in many restrictions on the Bitcoin mainnet. Therefore, protocols such as Ordinals, BRC-20, and Rune can only find ways to achieve the goal of “issuing tokens or artworks on the Bitcoin mainnet” within these limitations. However, there are opposing forces, such as Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr, who believe that these protocols are damaging to the Bitcoin mainnet and have been resisting these innovations.
If the BIP-347 proposal for “OP_CAT in Tapscript” is approved and the Bitcoin mainnet completes the soft fork, it would mean a significant change in the Bitcoin consensus, shifting from conservatism to openness and reopening the narrative ceiling of Bitcoin. The reason for saying “reopening” is because I believe that Rune has already achieved the pinnacle of the narrative of “issuing tokens on the Bitcoin mainnet,” and it is difficult for newcomers to shake its position unless there is a “dimensional attack” such as smart contracts.
However, whether OP_CAT can revive in this bull market is uncertain. Being assigned a BIP proposal does not mean that the community has reached a consensus on a particular issue, but rather that “the community can begin to debate it.” We may not even be at the stage of considering whether there is enough support yet, and we are still in the stage of “this issue needs more discussion.” Quantum Cats, one of the blue-chip NFT projects in Bitcoin, is essentially a “campaign” for the OP_CAT issue. Udi Wertheimer, like an active “politician” in Bitcoin, leads a blue-chip NFT community in rallying for the revival of OP_CAT. Udi has tried to have a positive debate with Luke Dashjr on Twitter Spaces several times, but Luke mostly adopts an attitude of “I don’t care,” suppressing the supporting side.
If OP_CAT can successfully revive in this bull market, almost 100% of the technological narrative in the Bitcoin ecosystem will be guided by OP_CAT. Currently, the targets attempting to revive OP_CAT include Quantum Cats and the CAT20 protocol on Fractal.
If not, Rune is likely to continue to maintain its position as the most influential FT protocol in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
The Rune market needs to withstand more tests.
A Rune only becomes a true FT after being listed on a CEX. Prior to listing, Rune’s nature is not much different from an NFT, and this is reflected in its market value. It experiences significant “recoil” — when there is good liquidity, the market value quickly soars, but when liquidity is low, it experiences a downward spiral, with a pile of small orders lingering near the floor price and causing even lower asking prices, resulting in a cycle of no interest.
The true market value of Rune needs to be tested through the liquidity of CEX, which may be one of the reasons why the listing of Rune coins on CEX is slow.
In addition to CEX, there are also Rune swap products on the Bitcoin mainnet chain, such as Dotswap, and Magic Eden will soon launch its own Rune swap function. Interestingly, Dotswap’s Rune swap product is good, but it has not attracted enough traffic, while the CAT20 protocol on Fractal has brought good attention to Dotswap. It remains to be seen whether Magic Eden can improve the on-chain liquidity of Rune through its own traffic and excellent user experience.
In terms of the variety of tokens, Rune already has “Cult coins” like PUPS•WORLD•PEACE, but the hot topics are still relatively limited. Currently, they revolve around a few major NFT projects within the community or are simply based on the size of the holder community. More players need to enter to create a better environment for content and even the formation of Cult coins. This can also be seen in the bridging of PUPS•WORLD•PEACE and BILLION•DOLLAR•CAT to Solana to achieve greater breakthroughs.
As for the future of BRC-20, it currently appears somewhat bleak, with $ORDI, $SATS, and $PIZZA being the only three tokens in the BRC-20 ecosystem.
The blue-chip NFT lineup has relatively stabilized, but there is still room for exploration in terms of unique narrative.
NodeMonkes, Bitcoin Puppets, OMB (Ordinal Maxi Biz), Quantum Cats, and Pizza Ninjas have solidified their blue-chip status. In addition, Bitcoin Shrooms is a unique presence, with a low total supply and a stable floor price above 1 BTC.
In terms of pure art NFTs, as generative art on Ethereum has become somewhat passé, Bitcoin art needs to seek breakthroughs in terms of themes, such as concept art that combines Bitcoin’s own cultural attributes or AI art. From this perspective, CENTS may be the most unique art series on Bitcoin, as it has a flavor that cannot be replicated on other chains.
The artist behind CENTS is Rutherford Chang, who selected pennies made of 95% copper and 5% zinc minted before 1982 (in 1982, pennies were changed to zinc due to cost reasons) from hundreds of thousands of pennies and engraved them onto Bitcoin. Furthermore, he melted the physical pennies into a solid copper block.
Bitcoin creates a “tangle of value” for CENTS:
You can’t tell if this is a 1 cent coin engraved on Bitcoin or a 1 satoshi coin engraved on a penny.
This artificially creates deflation for pennies and “deflation” for Bitcoin. All the 1 cent coins in the CENTS series are old pennies minted with 95% copper and 5% zinc before 1982, which are essentially deflationary as they are no longer being minted. At the same time, the available bitcoins for engraving have decreased by 1 satoshi.
The legal value of a 1 cent coin is 1 cent, but the production cost of minting a 1 cent coin is higher than 1 cent, and the value of 1 satoshi is less than 1 cent. These 10,000 1 cent coins have been transferred to a lower-value medium, yet they reflect a higher value. Currently, the price of 1 CENTS is around $330, while the copper block had an auction price of $50,400 in June, and the 10,000 legal value of 1 cent is $100.
Over time, the legal value of a 1 cent coin may no longer exist someday, the production cost of minting a 1 cent coin may continue to change, and the value of 1 satoshi may be much higher than 1 cent.
This narrative cannot be replicated on other chains because other chains’ tokens do not have the ability to make people feel like they are truly a coin or a currency like Bitcoin does.
The concept of DMT is also worth paying attention to as a unique artistic narrative in Bitcoin. In summary, there are many types of data in the Bitcoin blockchain, such as block hash, block size, block height, and block target difficulty. DMT aims to create specific digital assets based on these data. Currently, besides the leading project Natcats, which embodies the concept of DMT, there are no other projects that have gained enough market attention.
In conclusion, whether OP_CAT can revive in this bull market will determine the future direction of the Bitcoin ecosystem. There are other directions that have not yet become market hotspots, such as the Lightning Network (Taro, RGB, CKB), and BitVM, which may receive more attention if OP_CAT fails to revive.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently the only place in the crypto market where “technological narratives” can be realized. The reason is simple: Bitcoin is like an old computer with a Pentium 4 processor that still has enough hardware to be upgraded, but it depends on whether the system administrators can reach a consensus. However, forming a consensus is incredibly difficult, as it involves clashes of ideas and conflicts of interests.
But no matter what, the Bitcoin ecosystem will undoubtedly be one of the important narratives of this bull market and will be a unique presence compared to other ecosystems.
