CoinWen News Report:
The probability of Trump’s victory has increased, and the cryptocurrency industry may receive a wave of good news in the short term.
Written by Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
With the upcoming US presidential election, the future direction of the cryptocurrency market, which is greatly influenced by US politics and the economy, has become a focus of attention in the market.
Will the price of Bitcoin break through the new high as desired? Will the price of Ethereum continue to remain sluggish? Will the Meme coin frenzy in the Solana ecosystem continue? Can the altcoin market gradually recover? Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and analyze the current situation of the US presidential election and the existing views of the cryptocurrency market in this article for readers’ reference.
Latest opinion polls: Trump temporarily leads, followed closely by Harris
Overall, Republican presidential candidate Trump is temporarily leading in the election polls, but his lead is small; Democratic presidential candidate and current US Vice President Harris is slightly behind in support.
Brief analysis of the US election rules: 270 electoral votes are crucial
According to the rules of the US election, the 50 states have a certain number of electoral votes, with a total of 538 nationwide. The candidate who wins 270 or more electoral votes will win the election. With the exception of two states (Nebraska and Maine), all states adopt the “winner-takes-all” rule, meaning that once a candidate receives the most votes in a state, they will receive all of that state’s electoral votes. Most states overwhelmingly support one party or the other, so the focus of the campaign usually falls on about ten swing states where the two sides are evenly matched.
Looking at past US elections, the key to success or failure lies in seven swing states, totaling 94 electoral votes. Their results will determine the outcome of the presidential race.
Latest opinion polls: Trump’s support rate reaches 52%
The latest poll shows that Trump is leading Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump as the next US president.
Previously, Trump had a 47% support rate in the Wall Street Journal poll, leading Harris with 45%.
In the latest poll conducted by the Financial Times, Trump is leading Harris in terms of the US economy.
The latest betting information from the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket shows that Trump’s winning rate is 60.7%, while Harris’ winning rate is 39.4%.
According to the information from the official website of the well-known US political election website RCP, the Trump/Pence ticket is expected to win more crucial swing state votes and ultimately win 312 electoral votes.
Market views: Trump’s chances of winning the election are highly correlated with the trend of cryptocurrency prices
Previously, Intern, the head of growth at Monad, stated that the Trump winning rate curve on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with the trend of Bitcoin prices.
The chart trend selected takes into account data from March to October this year.
QCP Capital previously pointed out in a report that as the probability of Trump winning the election rises, the market expects his cryptocurrency policies to be more friendly than Harris, further strengthening the positive correlation between cryptocurrency assets and Trump’s victory.
As Galaxy Research previously analyzed, although Harris is more friendly towards cryptocurrency policies than the current president Biden, the market views her far less favorably than Trump. After all, Harris promises to improve the regulatory environment for the US cryptocurrency industry, but takes a more cautious stance on issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, while Trump supports Bitcoin mining and promises to protect the right to self-custody.
The Bitfinex Alpha research report also pointed out that the correlation between the trend of Bitcoin prices and the probability of Trump’s election has increased. As investors evaluate the potential impact of a Republican victory on future cryptocurrency regulations, the cryptocurrency market has shown a higher sensitivity to the US election. In addition, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin perpetualAs a professional translator, I will translate this news article into English using accurate and coherent sentences while retaining proper nouns and all 
. I will ensure that the meaning remains the same and there are no grammatical errors. Please note that I will not add a period at the end of the translation. Here is the translated content:
Bitcoin Could Rise to $100,000 with Trump’s Victory, Crypto Experts Say
Bitcoin’s price could potentially reach $100,000 if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, according to crypto asset management company Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeff Park. Park’s prediction is based on a chart plotting Bitcoin’s price against Trump’s winning odds on Polymarket, using a mathematical model called “merged arbitrage probability.” Additionally, early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman believes that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 and ignite significant growth in the cryptocurrency market.
Augustine Fan, director of SOFA.org, stated that the most positive outcome for the cryptocurrency industry would be Trump’s victory, combined with Republican control of both the House and the Senate, which could lead to the passage of Trump-Vance-supported digital asset reform legislation in Congress. Fan added that if Trump maintains his dominant position, the Federal Reserve might signal a more moderate approach, which could create new momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events.
Furthermore, French bank BNP Paribas stated in a report that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election early next month will determine the short-term prospects of the U.S. dollar. The bank anticipates the most favorable outcome for the dollar would be Trump becoming president with the Republicans controlling Congress.
However, some analysts hold a neutral view, suggesting that both Trump and his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, winning the election could lead to economic risks and market downturns. Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that a Harris victory could disappoint Wall Street. Wilson also mentioned the potential risk of market downturns if Trump wins.
Presto analyst Jones stated that the U.S. election could trigger a bond market collapse, which could affect other assets like Bitcoin. Jones believes that in the current risk environment, Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and Nasdaq stocks are favorable. The analyst argued that both Trump and Harris have promised “fiscal profligacy,” leading to increasing government debt levels and exacerbating the risk of a bond market collapse. Additionally, the pending approval of the “Bitcoin Act 2024” by Congress could help stabilize U.S. debt and even the global financial system.
Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at crypto venture capital fund Dragonfly Capital, suggested that regardless of the election outcome, the post-election environment should be favorable for potential crypto IPOs. Qureshi mentioned that while Trump might push the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to adopt a more supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, Harris could replace Gensler with someone of her choosing, leading to more lenient cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S.
David Lawant, Head of Research at crypto market maker FalconX, stated that the market consensus is that Bitcoin may perform well regardless of the election outcome. Lawant’s analysis showed a significant bullish bias in options activity surrounding the upcoming election. Trump’s public support for cryptocurrencies has led to Bitcoin being seen as a “Trump trade,” while Harris has promised to support regulatory frameworks for the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration’s crackdown. The Federal Reserve’s further interest rate cuts and other non-political factors are seen as contributing to the positive sentiment.
Mick Mulvaney, former Acting White House Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, stated that the cryptocurrency industry is a disruptive force in American politics because it appeals to both Democrats and Republicans.
On the other hand, two ETF experts suggested that if Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris wins the November election, XRP and SOL ETF applications may not be approved. Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, mentioned that regardless of the issuer, the applications would not be approved if Harris wins.
