CoinWorld reported:
Top expert characteristics: Super diamond hands, 40%-45% win rate, profit-loss ratio above 1:5
Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Recently, the Ethereum meme craze has returned, and on-chain gas has seen a revival. On the other hand, the atmosphere and players in the Ethereum meme market give the public a stronger impression of “diamond hands” compared to other chains. Are the true winners “diamond hands” or PvP experts? What are their data characteristics?
Odaily Planet Daily has outlined the TOP 100 profitable addresses for twenty meme tokens, including various tokens with market capitalizations of millions like BURGER, tens of millions like DOGE, and over a hundred million like Nerio and MOG, analyzing their multidimensional characteristics.
Data Source and Processing Explanation
The data for each wallet in this article comes from GMGN, where the unmodified basic data includes 7-day profit, 30-day profit, 30-day win rate, and wallet balance. Customized data includes:
Total profit: Due to discrepancies in total profit data for many addresses on GMGN, this article uses the profit value of “the ten most profitable tokens” minus “the ten most loss-making tokens” as a substitute for total profit, calculating as many as available if fewer than ten exist.
TOP profit: Tokens marked as “insufficient liquidity” but with large profits on GMGN have been excluded, as these are often scam tokens with inflated market capitalizations. The profits for the top 1, 3, and 5 tokens have been separately calculated, with losses analyzed similarly.
Average profit per purchase/sale: 30-day total profit ÷ number of purchases/sales within 30 days.
Additionally, duplicate addresses, addresses that obtained large amounts of tokens through transfers (which may have issues in profit calculations), and MEV Bot addresses have been manually removed, resulting in a total of 1581 addresses.
Wallet Data Analysis
How many diamond hands are there?
The total profit of the 1581 addresses is $208 million, with an average profit of $131,900;
The top profit token contributed $190 million in profit, with an average profit of $120,700;
The top loss token accounted for losses of $30.9 million, with an average loss of $19,500.
It is evident that these “smart money” addresses perform well in terms of profit-loss ratio, achieving break-even with just a 14% win rate under a 600% profit-loss ratio.
Furthermore, Odaily segmented the addresses based on total profit amounts and included analyses of TOP 3 and TOP 5 profit-loss ratios, with the results shown in the following chart:
The higher the total profit of the address, the higher the profit-loss ratio or the degree of “diamond hands”;
The profit-loss ratio of the top 1 is higher than that of the top 3 and 5, indicating that these “smart money” addresses often achieve significant profits through individual tokens.
What is the trading frequency of diamond hands?
Additionally, we removed addresses with ETH balances less than 0.1 ETH or that had not traded in the last 30 days, resulting in an average of 337 trades per address within 30 days, detailed in the following table:
Surprisingly, the most profitable addresses have a trading frequency significantly higher than other ranges, possibly indicating that these addresses are more frequently searching for opportunities;
Moreover, the average profit per transaction for the most profitable addresses far exceeds that of others, primarily due to a few addresses purchasing tokens worth tens of thousands of dollars before Nerio was listed on Binance, leading to particularly high average profits for single addresses;
The “average profit per sale ÷ average profit per purchase” for addresses with profits over $100,000 is significantly lower than other ranges, indicating that these addresses tend to make low-frequency purchases and then sell in batches.
Win Rate and Profit Interpretation
Similarly, by analyzing the average win rate, 7-day profit, and 30-day profit by range, the results are shown in the following table:
It can be seen that, unlike Solana, the win rates for profitable addresses across various ranges are not particularly high. Combining this with the previous two sections, while maintaining a certain win rate, attention should be focused on expanding the profit-loss ratio.
(Solana smart money analysis can be found in “A Glimpse into a Thousand Solana ‘Smart Wallets’: Who is Making a Fortune? What Can We Learn from It?”)
For addresses with profits over $200,000, the 7-day profit and 30-day profit are very close, primarily due to certain addresses experiencing significant profits from Nerio in recent days. This means that addresses within the $50,000 – $200,000 profit range have slightly better ongoing profitability, which is worth noting for readers who prefer this strategy.
Addresses with negative profits exhibit low win rates and sustainable losses, and can also serve as a “contrarian” reference.
Appendix
The complete Ethereum smart address data is as follows:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFkd-eu9oTKgEhbUJ9X6kcwQMhromkFd65Is_M8FzZ0/edit?usp=sharing
The complete data analyzed in July regarding Solana smart money is as follows:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HIKLZF-XKf2EFcj-nvBX3Lj_HapQ-UqMeIgLJCtEN_0/edit?usp=sharing
