Article Title: Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A Cruel Summer But a Better Future
Fasten your seat belts, we are going to dive deep into some technical analysis. On Monday, Bitcoin fell below $60,000. Although the price has since recovered to that level, people are still speculating about the next support line, with some wondering if the price will fall further. Ledn’s Chief Investment Officer, John Glover, discussed some technical levels worth noting. He said the next support level would be $55,000 or $56,000, a price last seen in early May. If Bitcoin falls below this level, the focus will be on $49,000. Despite the volatility, Glover remains optimistic about the overall environment. “I think there will be inflationary pressures in the fall, which will drive Bitcoin higher. I think the SEC will approve a spot Ether ETF, which could happen by the end of the summer, and this will push the price up,” Glover said. “Then there will be some exogenous shocks that we don’t even know about, but I think that could drive the price higher. But in reality, we all have to recognize that we are still in the early stages of a larger investor market adopting Bitcoin,” he continued. His analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory, which studies long-term price patterns that occur repeatedly as a result of changes in investor psychology and emotions. The theory holds that the market fluctuates in predictable wave patterns, reflecting the collective emotions of investors. If you are a nerd like me, measuring long-term prospects by observing how history repeats itself is an interesting approach. The Elliott Wave theory assumes a total of five waves. According to Glover’s assessment, we are most likely in the third wave of the fifth wave. As the chart shows, Bitcoin has indeed experienced the first and second waves. The third wave typically indicates a need for a further pullback before Bitcoin gains upward momentum. The general consensus is that once we get through the summer, the market from there may be smoother (key word: may). In the Empire newsletter, we previously discussed multiple analyses predicting that Bitcoin will surpass $80,000 by the end of the year. “My core view is that I believe BTC will reach $85,000 to $95,000 by the end of the year, but I don’t think there will be a catalyst to achieve this until sometime by the end of the summer, which could be the SEC approving an Ether ETF, which will push all asset prices up,” Glover said. We may see these ETFs approved in early July. Updated registration statements were submitted last week. Glover’s predictions can be seen in any of the waves below. Glover points out that at this stage, Bitcoin trading is like tech stocks. Think of Meta or Tesla a few years ago. He said we will see it fall back, but then recover as it did earlier this week. But Glover’s focus is not limited to Bitcoin. He also discussed why we have not seen the explosive growth of altcoins that investors have become accustomed to in previous cycles. This can be attributed to changes in the investor structure of this cycle, with highly speculative retail investors in the minority. Clearly, institutions and large companies like BlackRock have already taken center stage with their products. Given the events of 2022, this is not particularly surprising. Ultimately, Glover believes that apart from the top five or so, altcoins may not rebound in this cycle. “Traditional investors won’t buy altcoins, only retail investors are buying altcoins, and many of them were seriously hurt in 2023. I think a lot of people who were very willing to speculate wildly in the altcoin market are now gone, they were seriously hurt, and now they just think, ‘I don’t want to feel that pain again.’ So I think it’s just a matter of numbers, that’s correct,” Glover said. So, as we brace ourselves for a cruel summer, fasten your seat belts. If we can weather the storm, the days ahead may be better. 
John Glover’s Elliott Wave analysis for Bitcoin.
