Ethereum Spot ETF Set to Reverse the Situation How High Will ETH Price Rise After Listing

Bijie.com reported:
Since the market began to heat up at the end of last year, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has consistently lagged behind Bitcoin and Solana in terms of price performance. Even though we may be in the middle of a bull market, it seems relatively indifferent to ETH players.
For the past few months, Ethereum holders have watched other ecosystem users celebrate, while they are left holding a full position of ETH, feeling heartbroken. However, the upcoming listing of Ethereum spot ETF may reverse this dilemma!
When will Ethereum spot ETF start trading? How high can it go after listing? Will it rise with the altcoins? These are the questions that everyone is currently concerned about. Let’s analyze it below.


Where is the progress of Ethereum spot ETF, and why hasn’t it been listed after approval?
On May 24th of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the 19b-4 application for Ethereum spot ETF from eight institutions, allowing these institutions to list Ethereum spot ETF on various exchanges in the United States. However, these institutions cannot start trading until they obtain the required approval for the S-1 registration statement. In simple terms, Ethereum spot ETF has been approved, and listing is a foregone conclusion, but the complete process has not been completed, and opening trading is only a matter of time.
Today (the 27th), Reuters cited insider sources from industry executives and related participants, stating that the SEC may approve the Ethereum spot ETF as early as July 4th. Senior executives of two anonymous companies revealed that the process of modifying the S-1 filing has progressed to the point where only “minor issues” remain to be resolved. A lawyer working with one of the issuers also stated that the approval process is currently in the “final stages” and approval “may not exceed one or two weeks.”
Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst who accurately predicted the launch time of Bitcoin futures/spot ETF, was optimistic in mid-June that the SEC is likely to formally approve these ETFs next week and bring forward the listing date of the Ethereum spot ETF to “July 2.”
Based on the feedback provided by the SEC to various institutions, there may not be much that needs to be adjusted, so news of the approved listing could come out at any time. According to the latest statement, the Ethereum spot ETF should have completed all preparations and obtained approval for listing before the end of this “summer.” In other words, by September of this year at the latest, we may see the Ethereum spot ETF open for trading on the U.S. stock market.


Will the price rise after the listing of Ethereum spot ETF?
After the listing of Ethereum spot ETF, it will provide a legal and regulated investment channel for Ethereum, and funds from traditional financial institutions and investors may flow into the market in a relatively safe manner, which may have the potential to drive up the price of Ethereum.
On the other hand, with the guarantee of regulation, along with the liquidity and transparency of the ETF, the market’s trust and visibility in Ethereum may be enhanced. Especially with Ethereum and on-chain DeFi’s characteristics of earning additional income through staking, it may further attract more investors who are not satisfied with the traditional market.
However, many ETF and cryptocurrency analysts believe that the demand for Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be much lower than that of Bitcoin spot ETF. Ethereum does not have a catalyst like Bitcoin halving, and the value proposition for Ethereum is different from that of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin halving event as a potential bullish event is also an additional catalyst for creating demand for Bitcoin spot ETF, which Ethereum does not have a similar driving force. Due to the less active trading activity in the Ethereum market compared to Bitcoin, and the relatively small total managed assets, the interest of investors in Ethereum spot ETF may be much lower than that for Bitcoin spot ETF. Therefore, the initial reaction of market investors to Ethereum spot ETF may be negative, which may put downward pressure on the price of Ethereum.
Price prediction after the launch of Ethereum spot ETF
It is expected that within the first five months of the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF, the influx of funds will range from 3 to 4.8 billion dollars, showing a strong market demand. This speculation is based on the relative global market share of ETH AUM to BTC, which is 28%, and the comparison of CME’s ETH OI to BTC, which is currently 23%. Comparing these weights with the cumulative inflow of BTC spot ETF, which is 13.8 billion dollars, the net inflow range of ETH is estimated to be between 3.1 and 4.8 billion dollars.
Research shows that the newly launched ETF is expected to absorb 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH, which is equivalent to 0.65-0.85% of the circulating supply of ETH. All signs indicate that although Ethereum has not performed as well as Bitcoin since the beginning of this year, its performance in the second half of the year has the potential to outperform Bitcoin after the opening of the spot ETF.
Currently, market analysts have extreme views on the price of ETH. Last week, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, expressed a conservative view on the impact of Ethereum ETF, estimating that the market flow of Ethereum spot ETF is about 15% of Bitcoin, and he personally predicted that the price would range from $2,400 to $3,000.
On the contrary, QCP Capital, a digital asset trading company, stated that the options market currently shows optimism, and if the Ethereum spot ETF can capture 10% to 20% of the flow of Bitcoin spot ETF, it may push the price of ETH to over $4,000, close to its historical high of $4,800.


Other potential positives for Ethereum in the future
SEC ends investigation into Ethereum
In April of this year, Consensys, a blockchain technology company that has been committed to developing applications and infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem (including developers of products such as MetaMask, Infura, and Truffle), filed a lawsuit against the SEC, accusing the SEC of attempting to classify Ethereum (ETH) as a security and abusing regulatory power to suppress specific tokens. Consensys believes that Ethereum should be considered a commodity rather than a security, a position that is more in line with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Two months later, after the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, Consensys wrote to the SEC, asking for confirmation whether the approval of the ETF is equivalent to positioning Ethereum as a commodity. This request ultimately led the SEC to end the investigation into Ethereum, which also led to the rise in the price of Ethereum and its series of tokens.
Inflow of ETH ETP in the market is higher than BTC
Despite the recent overall market downturn, the flow of ETH and BTC investment tools has formed a sharp contrast. Driven by the optimistic expectations for the launch of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF, the global net inflow of ETH ETP was 16,911 ETH, achieving a net inflow for the fourth consecutive week. In contrast, the BTC ETP had a net outflow of 12,523 BTC last week, which is the third-largest single-week outflow to date.
In the past four weeks, the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in other regions totaled 86,472 ETH, equivalent to about 300 million dollars. This flow situation is similar to the performance of the BTC ETP in November 2023 (before the approval of the U.S. BTC spot ETF), when the monthly net inflow of BTC ETP was 1.25 billion dollars. Comparatively, in the most ideal scenario, the inflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF may reach about 10 billion dollars, which is about 25% of the scale of the flow of the U.S. BTC spot ETF.
Therefore, the probability of Ethereum surpassing $5000 after the listing is still very high. For those who have spot positions, enduring this challenging market will lead to boundless opportunities.