How High Will the Ethereum ETF Soar After Listing 5000 8000

BiJie.com reported:
Since the market warmed up at the end of last year, Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, has always lagged behind Bitcoin and Solana in terms of price performance. Even though we may be in the middle of a bull market, ETH players are relatively indifferent.
Over the past few months, Ethereum holders have watched other ecosystem users celebrate. It’s understandable that those who hold ETH feel sad on their own. But the upcoming listing of Ethereum spot ETF may turn this situation around!
Ethereum spot ETF might open for trading? How much will it rise after listing and will it take altcoins with it? These are the questions everyone is currently concerned about. Let’s analyze it.
The progress of Ethereum spot ETF and why it hasn’t been listed yet
On May 24th of this year, the SEC officially approved 8 institutions’ 19b-4 applications for an Ethereum spot ETF, allowing institutions to list Ethereum spot ETF on various exchanges in the United States. However, the institutions that applied cannot start trading until they obtain the required S-1 registration statement approval.
In short, Ethereum spot ETF has been approved and it’s certain to be listed, but the entire process has not been completed yet, and opening for trading is only a matter of time.
When can you start buying and selling Ethereum spot ETF: As early as early July, as late as the end of September
We may get the latest progress on the Ethereum spot ETF on 7/2. Based on the feedback given by the SEC to various institutions, there may not be much to adjust, so it is possible to receive news of the approved listing at any time.
Furthermore, based on the most recent announcement, Ethereum spot ETF should complete all preparatory procedures and be approved for listing on the US stock market before the end of this “summer,” at the latest, around September of this year.
Will Ethereum spot ETF rise after listing: The market is indeed optimistic
After the listing of Ethereum spot ETF, it would essentially provide a legal and regulated investment channel for Ethereum, and the funds from traditional financial institutions and investors could flow into the market in a way that is considered relatively safe, thereby potentially driving up the price of Ethereum.
On the other hand, with regulatory guarantees, combined with the liquidity and transparency of the ETF, it will increase market trust and visibility of Ethereum. Especially the characteristics of Ethereum itself and DeFi on the chain, which can earn additional income through collateralization, may further attract more investors who are not satisfied with the traditional market.
How much will Ethereum spot ETF rise after listing?
It is expected that the amount of funds flowing into Ethereum spot ETF within the first five months of listing will be between 3 and 4.8 billion USD, showing strong market demand. This speculation is based on the global relative market share of ETH AUM compared to BTC of 28%, and the comparison between CME’s ETH OI and BTC’s 23% at present. By comparing these weights with the cumulative net inflow of 13.8 billion USD for BTC spot ETF, the net inflow range of ETH is estimated to be between 3.1 billion USD and 4.8 billion USD.
Research indicates that the newly launched ETF will absorb 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH, equivalent to 0.65-0.85% of the circulating supply of ETH.
All in all, although Ethereum’s growth has been lagging behind Bitcoin since the beginning of this year, there is a chance that its performance in the second half of the year will surpass Bitcoin after the spot ETF opens for trading.
Potential other good news for Ethereum in the future: Regulatory pressure weakened, good ETP inflows
SEC ends investigation into Ethereum
In April of this year, Consensys, a blockchain technology company that has long been focused on developing applications and infrastructure in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as MetaMask, Infura, and Truffle, filed a lawsuit against the SEC, accusing the SEC of trying to classify Ethereum (ETH) as a security and abusing regulatory power to suppress specific tokens. Consensys believes that Ethereum should be considered a commodity rather than a security, a position that is more in line with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Two months later, after the approval of Ethereum spot ETF, Consensys sent a letter to the SEC asking for confirmation of whether the approval of the ETF equates to positioning Ethereum as a commodity, a request that ultimately led the SEC to decide to end the investigation into Ethereum. This also indirectly led to the rise in the prices of the tokens in the Ethereum series.
Inflows of ETH ETP on the market are higher than those of BTC
Although the overall market has been declining recently, the flow of investment tools for ETH and BTC forms a sharp contrast. Driven by the optimistic expectations of the launch of the US Ethereum spot ETF, the net inflow of global ETH ETP was 16,911 ETH last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows. In contrast, BTC ETP had a net outflow of 12,523 BTC last week, which is the third largest weekly outflow so far.
In the past four weeks, the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in other regions was 86,472 ETH, equivalent to 300 million USD. The flow of ETH ETP is similar to the performance of BTC ETP in November 2023 (before the launch of the US BTC ETF spot), with a monthly net inflow of 1.25 billion USD.
By comparison, it once again shows that under the most ideal conditions, the inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF may reach approximately 10 billion USD. This is about 25% of the scale of the flow of the US BTC spot ETF.
So, the probability of Ethereum reaching 5000 USD after the listing is very high. For those who hold the spot, enduring this tough market will be like reaching for the stars.
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