Is Bitcoin at the Bottom OnChain Data Shows

CoinDesk reported that the increase in on-chain realized losses indicates that another upward trend of BTC is coming to an end. Historical data provided by the cycle detector shows that the coins are not in a bear market phase.
If the current cycle is still in a bull market phase, then Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the bottom. This is indicated by AMBCrypto’s analysis of the Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR.
SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. This indicator provides insights into the realized profits of all coins on-chain. However, this time the focus is on the short term.
Is the loss in Bitcoin price significant?
If the STH-SOPR is greater than 1, it means that the price of BTC sold is higher than the purchase value. This indicates that there are a lot of realized profits on-chain.
However, when this indicator is below 1, it means that the selling price is higher than the weighted purchase value. This indicates realized losses on-chain. According to CryptoQuant’s data, Bitcoin’s STH-SOPR has dropped to 0.98.
Historically, when this situation occurs, it means that Bitcoin has bottomed out or is close to bottoming out. As shown in the chart above, a similar situation occurred in September 2023.
Around that time, the price of Bitcoin was $26,253. The SOPR also dropped to a similar range. By November of the same year, the coin had reached $35,441.
Other bull market cycles in 2021 and 2018 also showed similar trends, indicating that this pattern often rhymes. If the situation is the same, the price of Bitcoin could rise by 34.99% in less than two months.
At the time of writing, the price of BTC is $57,154. Based on this calculation, the price of the coin in September could be around $77,100.
If this becomes a reality, it means that BTC could hit a new all-time high this quarter.
However, regardless of how optimistic the outlook may be, it is important to check if the cycle is still in a bull market phase.
Bears, it’s not your time yet!
Earlier, when Bitcoin dropped to $54,274, some called for a return to a bear market. However, this viewpoint has not been confirmed. That’s why AMBCrypto hopes Glassnode can provide firsthand information on the situation.
To do this, we checked the Bitcoin Cycle Change Detector. This detector identifies the transition from a bull market to a bear market. It also indicates whether a bear market has turned into a bull market.
If the market switches to a bear market, the shadows on the chart will turn red. This was clearly evident from the market conditions in November 2022. But as of the writing of this article, this is not the case.
There will be no transition to a bear market cycle unless the total profits of circulating Bitcoins reach nearly 100%. In this case, BTC may have bottomed out.
Therefore, the coin may reach higher values before the end of this quarter—potentially between $76,000 and $80,000 or higher.
However, if selling pressure hits the market as it has in recent weeks, this prediction will become invalid.