Wednesday, June 26th, the US dollar index remained strong at 105.68, with gold plummeting to a low of $2310.51 and Bitcoin rebounding above $62,000. Federal Reserve Board member Bowman expressed support for a hawkish interest rate increase, emphasizing that there will be no rate cuts this year. In a major ceasefire announcement from the Middle East, Israel expressed willingness to diplomatically resolve the conflict with Hezbollah to the United States.
The US State Department: Israel is willing to diplomatically resolve the conflict with Hezbollah
The Gaza Health Ministry reported that in the past day, Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip have caused at least 32 deaths and 139 injuries.
Civil Defense spokesperson Mahmoud Bassal told Al Jazeera that the Israeli army deliberately attacked 5 displaced persons camps in Gaza in less than 48 hours.
Al Jazeera obtained leaked footage from a camera on an Israeli military dog showing the dog attacking an elderly Palestinian woman in her home in Jabalia, northern Gaza.
The Israeli Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the state must conscript extremist Orthodox Jewish men, a decision welcomed by opposition leader Yair Lapid, who said it means “no more exemptions.”
According to US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Israel is more willing to resolve the conflict with Hezbollah through diplomatic means.
Federal Reserve officials support “hawkish” interest rate hikes, soft sentiment data does not suppress the US dollar
Bowman stated that inflation is expected to remain high for a period of time. There is currently no appropriate time for a rate cut, and the basic outlook is for policy rates to remain unchanged for “some time,” with inflation returning to 2%. If inflation progress stalls or reverses, support for rate hikes will be considered at future meetings.
He continued, “I don’t think we will cut rates in 2024, pushing back the rate cut to 2025.” “We have not yet reached the point where it is appropriate to lower policy rates, and given the risks and uncertainties in my economic outlook, I will remain cautious about future changes in policy stance.”
Bowman believes that several areas could put upward pressure on prices, and expects inflation to remain high for a period of time.
The US dollar technical analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martin stated that the US dollar index’s technical outlook continues to be positive, with all indicators remaining strong. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50 and is trending upwards, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is forming a green histogram, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
Gold technical analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bruce Powers stated that gold has further extended the potential bearish flag pattern, retesting the trend line support at the daily low of $2315. A bearish setup appeared after a sharp drop to a low of $2287 on June 7th, triggering a second wave of downward adjustment. If the low of June 7th is broken, a fifth wave of decline may occur.
Bitcoin technical analysis
CMTrade stated that Bitcoin’s RSI is above the neutral zone of 50, and the MACD is above the signal line and positive. The price is also above the 20 and 50-period moving averages, at $61,097 and $60,688 respectively.
“Our pivot point is at $60,240, and our preference is for the uptrend to continue as long as $60,240 is a support level.”
“An alternative scenario is a break below $60,240, which would point to $59,280 and $58,710.”
Friday will be an important event, as the favored inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is set to be released. Market expectations for a rate cut in November are high, with a 70% chance of a rate cut as early as September. PCE data will play a key role in influencing market forecasts.
