ASI
The concept of merging three coins into one has been under discussion since April! After the vote was passed, the project was originally scheduled to go live in May or June, but due to poor market conditions, the project team kept delaying it! I have been following the concept of merging three coins into one since April. The exchange ratio for exchanging the three coins for ASI is as follows: starting with $FET as the base token of the alliance, the $FET token will be renamed $ASI and an additional 1.48 billion tokens will be minted, with 867 million $ASI tokens allocated to $AGIX holders and 611 million $ASI tokens allocated to $OCEAN token holders. The total supply of ASI tokens will be 2.63 billion. Token holders will receive 0.433226 ASI per OCEAN and 0.43335 ASI per AGIX. This exchange rate is fixed and will not change. The valuation they announced in May was $7.5 billion, which means $7.5 billion ÷ 2.63 billion coins = 2.8! According to the promotion in May, ASI was expected to reach 2.8 (the promotion and valuation are for reference only). The project team has delayed the merger at least five times, and currently Coinbase does not support the merger! Foreigners are not interested in your tricks! If you want to participate in the merger on Coinbase, you have to go to other exchanges! These are the recent developments of the three-coin merger! Now, let me share my thoughts with you! First: The attitude of domestic exchanges OKX and Binance towards the three-coin merger is somewhat ambiguous. You can find the announcements about the merger, and they are not very detailed. Many things are mentioned briefly. Initially, the plan was to exchange into ASI, but now it has been changed to first exchange into FET and then into ASI. This is why FET has been under significant selling pressure in recent days! Second: After multiple exchanges, the circulation of tokens becomes unclear, which easily leads to a large number of “rat warehouses” and puts great selling pressure on the newly listed coins! There are also uncertainties about the snapshot time of FET and the pricing and market capitalization of ASI in the later stage. Third: In the cryptocurrency industry, you need to anticipate hotspots in advance, rather than constantly chasing after them. It would be very frustrating if you keep chasing after hotspots. We started paying attention to the three-coin merger in April when the price difference was as high as 12%, and it was easy to make a profit! With the current sell-off and selling pressure of the three-coin merger, the chips are being distributed to retail investors. Let’s see how it goes when it goes live. According to the normal pace, the valuation given by the project team for the launch is probably around $2.8. If it opens at a low price, it might be worth considering, but if it opens high and then drops, it’s not worth playing!!! It all depends on how the project teams of FET, AGIX, and OCEAN manipulate the market. As for the three-coin merger, we can observe and even miss the opportunity, but we shouldn’t have a blind strategy and expect the price to triple, quintuple, or increase tenfold. That’s impossible. Don’t daydream! Fourth: The three coins in the merger all have a group of loyal fans and followers, who will also become supporters of the ASI project in the future! Fifth: In the cryptocurrency industry, there have been many hype cycles, splits, hard forks, and rebranding, but the three-coin merger is truly unprecedented! And it is in the AI sector, where Nvidia is currently dominant, and the sector is thriving. If ASI has a grand vision, it will also bring a good wave of heat to the AI sector! (Here, I boldly predict that if this wave takes off, there will be more coins in other fields that will undergo mergers in the future!) Let’s see how it performs after it goes live! You can also compare the initial trading patterns of AGIX, OCEAN, and FET. We can take a look and learn about the project teams’ market manipulation techniques to be prepared for any situation!
Impending Large-scale Unlocking, Will WLD Continue to Decline Below $1?
Market Performance
WLD & BTC Price Comparison
The current price of WLD is 2.227, with a circulating market capitalization of $550 million and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $22.2 billion. The price has dropped over 80% from its all-time high of 11.72, and has fallen 53% in the past month. Its performance is not only worse than BTC, but also worse than most altcoins.
WLD Chip Distribution by Price
On-chain data shows that a large number of chips are distributed between 2.3 and 2.5, and there is also a large amount of trapped supply above $6.6. Based on the current price, the majority of addresses on the chain are in a floating loss state. Breaking through the resistance and moving upwards will be challenging. However, in the short term, the current position has strong support.
Increased Selling Pressure from Large-scale Unlocking
Tokenomics
Community 75%: Most of these tokens will be distributed to users; some tokens will be used for ecosystem funds and network operations. The Worldcoin Foundation will govern the token distribution according to its articles of association and gradually decentralize decision-making.
Initial Development Team 9.8%: Providing services to the Worldcoin Foundation and operating the World App.
TFH Investors 13.5%: TFH investors provided funds to support the project. In particular, TFH developed biometric imaging devices, the first version of the protocol and the World Application, as well as the first ecosystem wallet.
Reserve 1.7%: Reserved to meet TFH’s future needs.
WLD Token Distribution Model
Token Circulation and Unlocking Supply Plan
To facilitate the scale of Worldcoin in the coming years, the Worldcoin community may need a large number of tokens in the initial years after its launch. This is why 4.0 billion WLD tokens from the community will be unlocked within the first three years. However, the speed at which these tokens enter the circulating supply is controlled by governance, depending on the growth rate of the network.
TFH Investor Tokens: The tokens allocated to TFH investors will be contractually locked for 12 months after these investors exercise their respective token warrants, and then unlocked at an average daily rate over the next 24 months.
Initial Development Team Tokens: The tokens allocated to past and current team members will be contractually locked for 12 months after the release, and then unlocked at an average daily rate over the next 24 months.
TFH Reserve: The tokens allocated to the TFH reserve will be locked contractually for at least the same duration as that applicable to TFH investors and team members. The exact lock-up period will depend on the timing of the token allocation.
WLD Unlocking Supply Curve
The total token supply of WLD is 10 billion, and the current circulating supply accounts for only 16% of the total token supply. A large number of tokens are still in the unlocking state, and the main unlocked tokens at the moment are owned by the community, with a daily unlocking amount of 3.2 million tokens, equivalent to approximately $7.13 million at the current price, accounting for 1.29% of the total circulating market capitalization.
According to token.unlocks, after June 24th, WLD will face a larger daily unlocking amount, totaling 6.62 million tokens, which is approximately $16.28 million at market prices, accounting for about 10% of the past 24-hour trading volume. The $16.28 million unlocking amount is even higher than that of Solana, considering that WLD’s circulating market capitalization is less than 1/100 of Solana’s and its trading volume is less than 1/10. Such a large unlocking amount can be considered a massive supply. With limited market liquidity, facing such significant selling pressure, breaking through $1 is entirely expected. Currently, there are voices in the community calling for changes to the unlocking rules, but the possibility of implementation seems unlikely.
Due to the previous AI hype, the price of WLD once rose to a high point of $11.72. However, due to the lack of a practical use case for the token itself and a large number of tokens in the unlocking state, the price has been declining steadily. It has already dropped to around $2 and there are no signs of a bottom. If the upcoming daily unlocking of 7.6 million tokens (next unlocking date: July 24, 2024) is realized, it is entirely predictable that the price will drop below $1.
Concerning On-chain Data
According to data from Cryptorank, the top 10 addresses hold 91.19% of WLD, and the top 100 addresses hold 99.15%. Due to the allocation to the community and investors, the token distribution is highly concentrated, indicating strong control by a few major holders and making the price susceptible to manipulation.
WLD (Worldcoin) New/Active Address Change
WLD (Worldcoin) Active Addresses and Price Fluctuation
According to IntoTheBlock data, due to the prolonged low interest in the token price, the on-chain activity of WLD has significantly decreased, with the number of active addresses dropping by over half compared to the previous month. The lowest active address rate is only 2.5%, indicating a lack of sustained appeal for WLD after speculative opportunities disappear.
AI Sector Narrative Cooling Down
Similar to WLD’s situation, most AI concept tokens have experienced a general decline of over 30% in the past month. The previously hyped AI concepts (computing power services, AI computers, etc.) have failed to materialize, and the projects themselves have struggled to generate sufficient business revenue to sustain their operations, let alone provide returns to investors. In the absence of buyers, the token prices have plummeted.
Taking the mining power service platform io.net, which was previously highly sought-after, as an example, the actual GPU utilization rate is very low, with a large amount of idle resources. With a circulating market capitalization of $200 million and an FDV of over $2 billion, the network’s average daily revenue is less than $500. Even with such data, it is considered relatively good compared to other AI projects, highlighting the severity of the entire AI sector bubble.
WLD is a project that leans towards the public welfare type, and it does not have a self-contained business model. It largely relies on the popularity of AI and the strong appeal of Sam Altman himself. The concept of combining public welfare and crypto may seem appealing at first glance, but past experiences have repeatedly proven that non-financial applications are generally not viable in the crypto field. The long-term outlook for WLD is not optimistic.
Summary
WorldCoin’s UBI vision is grand, but its target audience is not the investors in the crypto field. With limited market liquidity in the overall crypto market, continuous unlocking of WLD tokens, and a weak narrative, there is still significant downside risk for its price.
Since the current market price has already reflected the negative impact of unlocking, the price may maintain at a certain level in the short term. However, in the long term, if the project team does not take proactive measures or the external market conditions do not improve, it is entirely possible for WLD to drop below $1.
