Trump Sets Record with 301 Odds for Harris Election on Polymarket

Coin World News Report:
The probability of Donald Trump winning the presidential election has just soared to a record-breaking 30.1%, with Kamala Harris as his opponent.
According to data from the cryptocurrency-driven prediction platform Polymarket, Trump holds a 65.1% stake, while Harris holds a 35% stake. This platform is becoming the preferred choice for cryptocurrency enthusiasts and election observers who are eager to bet on real-time changes.
Forget traditional polls – the market’s reaction here is much faster, although it still falls far short of the liquidity of major financial markets. Founder Shayne Coplan said, “It may feel like a cultural phenomenon, but as a financial market, it is still small.”
Polymarket was founded only four years ago. After the 2016 election, the errors of polling institutions made prediction markets highly attractive.
Unlike traditional polls, people here take risks with their money, which Elon Musk claims makes them “more accurate.” The platform is known for predicting Biden’s withdrawal before others saw it.
Betting on Trump’s Surge
Trump is favored by cryptocurrency voters. His chances of winning key swing states average around 64%. On the other hand, Harris holds a 35% stake.
In places like Wisconsin and Michigan, his chances have slightly decreased to below 60%, but he is still the frontrunner.
The surge in Trump’s chances is not accidental. Several high-stakes gamblers have placed huge bets on his victory.
In particular, four individuals collectively lost $25 million, significantly improving Trump’s odds. Meanwhile, platforms like PredictIt limit individual bets to $850 to avoid such influence.
Whales and Liquidity
Polymarket’s growth has been explosive. At the beginning of the year, the company locked in $9.5 million in stablecoins on its platform. By August, that number had soared to $220 million.
The platform’s lifetime trading volume has exceeded $1 billion, with nearly $430 million related to the US presidential election.
However, despite Polymarket’s growth, its liquidity remains relatively low and is susceptible to manipulation by a few large players. The anonymity of traders only adds to people’s concerns.
There are rumors that traders may manipulate prices by trading with themselves.
In recent weeks, as big spenders placed heavy bets on Trump’s victory, the platform has increased its scrutiny. A user named Fredi9999 has bet over $18 million on Republican election results so far. Trump alone has received $13 million, making Fredi9999 the top bettor on the platform.
On-chain analysts believe that Fredi9999 is not acting alone. According to detectives on Arkham Intelligence and X (formerly Twitter), Fredi9999 and three other accounts may be controlled by the same person.
These accounts combined have bet over $43 million less than the Republican results. All of these accounts have been verified to be located outside the United States, as Polymarket does not allow residents there to trade on its platform.
Polymarket is taking measures to carefully examine the compliance of its users, especially those who place large-scale bets, to ensure that they do not violate the rules.
The surge in Trump’s bets has also caught the attention of regulators. In early 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket for providing illegal trading services.
As part of the settlement agreement, the platform agreed to gradually reduce its services in the United States and focus on the international market.
Yesterday, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam shared his concerns about election-related gambling, warning that it could put democracy itself at risk. “This puts us in a very difficult position,” he said.
Behnam urged Congress to weigh whether betting should be allowed in elections, explaining that the stakes are higher than ever before.
Polymarket’s stocks are priced based on the probability of outcomes. For example, if Trump’s chances of winning are priced at 60 cents, his probability of winning is 60%.
If Trump wins, buyers will receive $1 per share. If he loses, the stocks are worthless. The betting market is highly volatile, and odds change quickly.
Bets on the US presidential race have exceeded $1.1 billion, and Polymarket is breaking records. But whether these bets will translate into real-world results remains to be seen.