With the approaching of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the activity of the prediction market PolyMarket based on cryptocurrency has surged. The decentralized exchange PancakeSwap announced on Wednesday that it will launch a prediction market focusing on the question: will the price of Ethereum rise or fall?
They will be betting on artificial intelligence’s predictions.
PancakeSwap’s pseudonymous product manager Chef Gyoza told Decrypt: “We have been exploring ways to create unique experiences for users. It is logical to incorporate artificial intelligence into the prediction market.”
According to the announcement, the PancakeSwap prediction market will be based on Arbitrum and will invite users to predict the trend of the ETH price every 10 minutes. Over the next nine weeks, rewards for correct predictions will be distributed from the 60,000 ARB bonus pool (approximately $49,600 at the time of writing this article).
PancakeSwap has hired the decentralized artificial intelligence network provider Allora to provide AI predictions. The exchange said that the predictions have shown 65% accuracy in testing.
As PancakeSwap’s artificial intelligence prediction market makes its debut, the cryptocurrency market is awaiting the launch of a spot Ethereum ETF in the U.S. Meanwhile, PolyMarket’s activity has also broken records, claiming to be the world’s largest prediction market.
While PancakeSwap’s platform focuses on one issue, PolyMarket supports countless bets on numerous topics.
As of June 27th, Polymarket’s monthly trading volume reached $93.55 million, with 26,560 monthly active users, reaching an all-time high. The platform’s most popular prediction is about the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets exceeding $185 million. Currently, the odds of Donald Trump winning are 60%, while the odds of Joe Biden winning are 34%.
Allora co-founder Nick Emmons told Decrypt: “Prediction markets have gained great attention before and after the U.S. presidential election, as they can focus market mechanisms on specific events. They are powerful tools for aggregating collective knowledge, especially when elections attract widespread attention.”
He said that artificial intelligence has brought an important new dimension to the space.
Emmons stated: “The ability of artificial intelligence to efficiently handle large datasets has introduced a new type of trader to interact with these markets.” With tonight’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the cryptocurrency community will be keenly interested. The grassroots advocacy organization, Stand with Crypto, has collected signatures urging CNN to ask the candidates about cryptocurrencies during the debate.
Although public opinion polls are still the main measure of public sentiment, Emmons said that this situation may change.
“In the next six months, as election-related events unfold, the activity of prediction markets may increase. The increased interest will make a wider audience familiar with prediction markets,” he said. “As a result, people will increasingly view these markets as a more explicit source of collective knowledge in more and more fields.”
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.