CoinDesk Report:
Author: Blockworks Research; Translation: Felix, PANews
Recent narratives surrounding TON and Telegram have gained significant traction, with many viewing TON as the next SOL or ETH. Blockworks Research has examined this phenomenon, suggesting that TON’s future growth prospects are lackluster, potentially disappointing the masses.
Telegram
Low User Stickiness
Telegram holds global influence, boasting substantial Daily Active Users (DAU) that could funnel users towards TON. By this metric, Telegram stands as one of the most widely used applications worldwide.
According to data provided by Telegram, it ranks 8th globally with a user base of 900 million, making it one of the most popular applications worldwide.
However, Telegram’s user stickiness is overestimated when measured by DAU. The DAU/MAU ratio graphic below indicates that despite high Monthly Active Users (MAU), Telegram’s DAU remains relatively low (between 55 million to 200 million), significantly lower compared to competing applications, with a DAU/MAU ratio of only 15%.
In contrast, Facebook’s ratio is 69%, WeChat about 67%, Instagram 60%, TikTok (U.S. market only) 49%, and Twitter (X) 45%. This suggests that Telegram has lower market penetration and a user base capable of monetization lower than market expectations.
PANews
Note:
DAU/MAU
Ratio measures user stickiness on networks or applications.
Incompatibility
EVM, Limited Programming Language Usage
The TON ecosystem faces challenges due to lack of compatibility with EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) and FunC (native programming language of blockchain).
The Ton Virtual Machine (TVM) is incompatible with Ethereum’s EVM due to fundamentally different architectures (TON is asynchronous, while Ethereum is synchronous). Therefore, the TON ecosystem does not support development in Ethereum’s Solidity programming language.
According to a 2023 developer survey (with over 90,000 participants), Rust is the most favored language, with over 80% of developers willing to use it again next year. 46.4% of developers expect to use Solidity.
Currently, TON supports three programming languages: Fift, FunC, and Tact. FunC is the most used among the three. Despite its similarity to C language, FunC is generally less known or endorsed.
Limited Terminal Market Coverage
Much of TON’s growth narrative revolves around Telegram potentially becoming the next WeChat. However, WeChat is blocked outside the U.S. market, serving only China.
In stark contrast, today’s app market is dominated by financially robust tech giants with well-established network effects. Telegram’s largest market distribution lies in scattered markets across the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and Eastern Europe), adding complexity for startups utilizing Telegram for distribution.
Below is Telegram’s annual download distribution for 2022:
India: 104 million downloads.
Russia: 34 million downloads.
Indonesia: 27 million downloads.
United States: 26 million downloads.
Brazil: 21.94 million downloads.
Egypt: 14.85 million downloads.
Vietnam: 11.84 million downloads.
Mexico: 11.61 million downloads.
Ukraine: 10.76 million downloads.
Turkey: 9.79 million downloads.
FDV
Overvalued Estimation
Despite these realities, TON still holds immense growth potential, with new investors having little safety margin.
The graphic below shows that among all public chains, TON’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is 8.6 times its network’s annualized DEX trading volume, ranking it first at the highest level.
Additionally, FDV is 927 times its network’s annualized fees, ranking it prominently among all public chains.
