CryptoSlate reports:
Recently, cryptocurrency markets have generally shown a downward trend, with investors and market analysts searching for the next major event that could change market sentiment. The approval of an Ethereum ETF is considered a significant potential catalyst for reversing market sentiment. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart recently revealed on Twitter that Bitwise Invest has resubmitted a revised Ethereum ETF S-1 form.
Analyst: Speculates it could debut the week of July 15!
Of note to investors, Seyffart speculates more issuers may submit similar applications this week, and an Ethereum spot ETF could potentially debut later next week or during the week of July 15.
According to reports, Bitwise’s latest submission updates include a waiver of up to $500 million in six-month trust management fees. While the filing does not specify an exact launch date for trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Bitwise indicates it will “promptly” commence trading upon registration approval. This also implies the listing date depends on SEC approval progress, although Bitwise stands ready to act swiftly upon approval.
On the other hand, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has questioned the SEC’s approval timeline, noting uncertainty over why it takes so long to process these forms. He suggests an Ethereum spot ETF could be imminent, but procedural issues may delay it, possibly due to summer holidays impacting staff availability.
Will ETH attract substantial capital inflows?
Eric Balchunas previously estimated Ethereum’s market flow to be just 10% of Bitcoin’s. This suggests a projected net purchase flow of $500 million and a net flow of $1.5 billion within six months.
Regarding whether Ethereum will see a surge in capital, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, holds a relatively conservative view. He forecasts Ethereum ETF market flows at about 15% of Bitcoin’s, equating to a true net purchase volume of $840 million and a net flow of $2.52 billion.
Under optimistic scenarios, true net purchases for an Ethereum ETF could reach $1.5 billion, with reported net flows hitting $4.5 billion, roughly 30% of Bitcoin’s market flow. Regardless, the true net purchase volume remains significantly lower than the derivatives flow before ETF launch, which reached $2.4 billion prematurely, indicating ETF expectations and reactions are already reflected in prices.
Before ETF launch, Andrew Kang estimates ETH trading prices between $3,000 and $3,800. Post-launch, he predicts prices to range between $2,400 and $3,000. Notably, Kang emphasizes everything hinges on Bitcoin; if Bitcoin rallies to $100,000 by late 2024 or early 2025, this could potentially propel ETH to new historic highs.