CoinDesk Report:
BTC
BTC experienced a pullback early yesterday morning, finding brief support around the key control line near 62,019, offering multiple small rebound opportunities before dipping below the retracement trend line around 9 a.m.
Its current position resides within the previous consolidation zone, where the upper boundary typically provides initial support upon first retracement. This area should be considered a short-term support range, with levels around 60,880 to 60,152 for quick entries and exits.
From a medium to long-term perspective, July is historically bullish, yet a retracement during the first week is normal due to insufficient retracement on the weekly chart. Further probing around 58,360 to 57,110 could present mid-term opportunities.
ETH
ETH continues to fluctuate around the key control line of 3,358, with some support at this level. However, the potential for rebounds remains unclear. Personally, I refrain from recommending heavy short-term involvement here.
Two favorable scenarios emerge: first, await a price bounce and subsequent retest of 3,358 in conjunction with broader market conditions; second, consider opportunistic buying near the 3,325 to 3,360 range following sharp declines.
Altcoins
There’s currently a lack of hot money in the market. After a surge earlier this year, the crypto market has been sideways for three months. Major currencies have retraced about 30%, while most altcoins have retraced over 50%. Is there still opportunity in the latter half of 2024?
Fundamentally, two aspects are pivotal:
1. Fed interest rate cuts are inevitable, whether this year or next.
2. Approval of spot ETFs. Over the past decade, the crypto market has evolved from chaos to gradual regulation, with institutions becoming major players, potentially extending bullish cycles.
I anticipate a potential surge in altcoins starting October 2024!
Based on BTC and ETH/BTC long-term trend analysis.
Comparative trends from 2019 to 2022 reveal:
In 2020, BTC initiated a major third-wave uptrend two months after its halving.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC-D) peaked in December 2020, seven months after halving, then steadily declined. ETH/BTC also bottomed in December 2020, with ETH as the dominant altcoin beginning its strong uptrend thereafter.
This bull cycle is faster-paced than that of 2021.
Hence, BTC-D is expected to peak in October, six months after halving, within a range of 57%-60%. An Ethereum ETF launch in July may anticipate earlier bottoming of ETH/BTC, yet substantial moves might wait until post-October.
Preparing for the market trend arrival
We’ve been in a consolidation phase for over three months, seemingly at the peak of market volatility.
I believe we are nearing relative bottom levels. It’s advisable to consider accumulating in the 55,000 to 62,000 range, synchronized with altcoins. Whether major or minor, the goal is to lower average prices and reserve the rest for contracts.
Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum will trap anyone. Sell at the peak, buy after the decline—the market educates those aiming to catch the lowest points. Ask yourselves honestly: have you sold at the peak? If not, what makes you confident about catching the bottom?
Adhere to a strategy: buy big during significant dips, small during minor ones, and regularly during consolidations.