CoinDesk Report:
Source: Chenbai Lang is not Chenbai Lang
TON’s daily user count has plummeted from 5 million to 1.58 million – is the hype fading or is another wave of enthusiasm on the horizon?
TON’s user base has experienced a sharp decline, but past trends suggest that it may see explosive growth again.
With 91% of tokens controlled by large holders, TON faces concerns of centralization in bearish indicators.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, TON’s daily active user count has dropped significantly from over 5 million at its peak to 1.58 million.
This significant decline raises questions about whether the previous hype is fading or if a new wave will emerge.
The historical records of TON’s daily active addresses show a series of rapid growth, usually associated with specific events or broader market excitement. In the initial stages from late October to mid-December, user activity remained relatively stable without significant surges.
However, from late December to mid-March, there was a gradual upward trend, indicating an increasing user interest.
From mid-March to late April, there was a sharp increase in daily active addresses, possibly influenced by price surges and increased market interest. From May to early July, there were fluctuations characterized by brief peaks.
From late August to early October, there was another significant increase, reaching the highest level of this year.
However, user activity has recently declined, stabilizing at 1.58 million – though still higher than the early levels.
Price trends and concentration
At the time of writing, TON’s trading price is $5.26, down 0.34% in the past 24 hours and up 2.11% in the past week. The trading volume is $299.64 million, with a total market cap of approximately $13.32 billion.
It is worth noting that 91% of the token supply is held by large holders, indicating a high level of centralization.
73% of holders are at a loss, with only 15% profiting, indicating cautious market sentiment. The correlation with Bitcoin’s price is low (0.12), suggesting that TON’s trend is less influenced by Bitcoin’s price movements.
In the past week, the total trading volume exceeded $10 billion, but the net outflow reached $8.81 million, indicating that more TON left exchanges than entered.
Most on-chain indicators still show bearish sentiment.
TON’s on-chain indicators show mostly bearish sentiment. Three bearish signals include “in the money” (-0.14), indicating lower profitability for holders; concentration (-0.04), indicating centralization; and large transactions (-0.23), indicating a decrease in large capital flows.
The only bullish indicator is net network growth (+2.97%), implying potential user expansion despite the current economic downturn.
Data from Coinglass shows that futures open interest has also experienced fluctuations. In early August, open interest reached over $300 million, but has since dropped to $214.18 million, with recent trading volume declining by 1.99%.
While current indicators suggest a cooling phase, past patterns indicate that TON’s user base can rapidly expand during periods of renewed attention or market events.
