On November 11, 2026, TechFlow reported, citing The Block, that Derive option pricing put the probability of Bitcoin closing below $70,000 at Christmas at 31%, up from 15% the previous week. Over the same comparison, the probability of a close above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%.
What the probabilities measure
These are implied probabilities from Derive’s option pricing, as relayed by TechFlow from The Block. They describe how prices on that venue were then weighting two Christmas outcomes: a close below $70,000 and a close above $80,000. The report does not give a single expected Christmas price. The two thresholds also leave closes between $70,000 and $80,000, and other outcomes, outside the figures that were stated. Because the inputs are option prices, later changes in those prices would change the probabilities. The shift is a snapshot from the week before that November 11 report, not a fixed chance through Christmas.
Defensive flow on Derive
Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive, said traders were turning defensive. He said Bitcoin options turnover on the platform over the prior week was $418 million, up 37%. Put options accounted for 55% of trading premium, compared with 36% the week before.
Those figures are platform-specific and are attributed to Forster. The 55% share is a share of options premium on Derive, not a contract count and not a measure of the entire Bitcoin options market.
Higher perpetual open interest, lower price
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said Bitcoin perpetual-futures open interest on Tuesday was about 353,000 BTC. Over the previous 30 days, that open interest rose 12% while Bitcoin’s price fell 10%. His reading was conditional: a move down through lower prices could trigger substantial long liquidations, while a rebound could prompt short covering. In either case, he said, the response could amplify price swings.
The open-interest level is approximate. The report does not add an exchange-level breakdown beyond Lunde’s statement, and it does not state liquidation prices or the size of any later move. His comments are an interpretation of how the reported positioning might behave if price fell further or rebounded. They are not a statement that either move would occur.
Conditions that would weaken the reading
The lower Christmas-close probability is only as current as the Derive prices behind the November 11, 2026 report. It would be a weaker description of the outlook if those option prices moved again, or if activity on Derive diverged from pricing elsewhere. Forster’s “defensive” characterization is tied to the put-premium share on that platform rising from 36% to 55%, alongside the $418 million of weekly volume he cited. Lunde’s point about larger swings depends on open interest having risen while price fell; it does not, on the reported evidence, identify where liquidations would start or how far price would travel. None of these statements is a forecast by this publication.
Original article: TechFlow, “Derive：比特币圣诞节跌破 7 万美元概率升至 31%”, published November 11, 2026, 22:47 UTC+8. TechFlow attributed the report to The Block. This text restates that item and adds no later prices or probabilities.
