On November 11, 2026, ChainCatcher reported that crypto-market research firm 10x Research put Bitcoin’s average return after U.S. midterm elections at a 13.6% decline over one month, a 21.6% decline over two months, a 13.3% decline over four months, a 3.5% gain over six months, and a 53.9% gain over one year. Those figures are historical averages attributed to 10x Research. The report does not date a specific election night, and the timestamp above is when ChainCatcher published the item, not a new release from this desk.
The average path 10x described
10x Research said the post-midterm phase first produces a drawdown. In the averages it cited, returns are negative at one, two, and four months, only modestly positive at six months, and 53.9% at one year. The sequence is an average path, not evidence that every midterm cycle matched each interval.
Twelve-month comparison with equities and gold
The firm said that after the early drawdown, Bitcoin went on to outperform the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and gold within 12 months. Over the same period, it put those assets’ average returns at a 14.3% gain, a 23.1% gain, and an 18.5% gain, respectively. That ranking is 10x Research’s reported historical comparison. It is not a statement that the next 12 months will repeat it.
Volatility, deficits, and what 10x treats as the mechanism
From what it called an 80-year historical perspective, 10x Research said a surge in volatility after an election usually lines up with cycle exhaustion rather than a structural institutional break. Separately, the firm said that after Democrats gain control of Congress, higher baseline deficit spending and welfare expansion would speed up the currency-devaluation trend.
Both points are 10x’s interpretation. ChainCatcher’s summary does not independently establish an election result, the size of any deficit or welfare change, or a measured effect on the currency. The devaluation claim applies only on the condition the firm stated: Democratic control of Congress followed by higher baseline deficit spending and welfare expansion.
Why 10x calls the drawdown an entry for patient capital
10x Research also reviewed precedents from earlier post-midterm cycles and argued that patient capital should treat this drawdown as an entry point. ChainCatcher said that discussion is organized around a post-midterm clearance event proposed by the firm. The entry-point language belongs to 10x Research. It is not a recommendation from this article, and the summary does not show how the firm defined or measured “this drawdown.”
Boundaries of the averages
The horizons actually stated run from one month to one year, with the outperformance claim tied to 12 months. Using them as an outlook assumes that past post-midterm averages remain relevant and that the fiscal path matches the Democratic-control case 10x described. The ChainCatcher report does not disclose the election sample or the calculation method. The averages are a weaker guide if that undisclosed sample is unlike the present setup, if congressional control or deficit and welfare policy do not match 10x’s condition, or if the path diverges from the reported pattern of an early drawdown and a later recovery. None of these percentages is a forecast by this site, and this restatement adds no later 10x Research update.
Original report: ChainCatcher, November 11, 2026, 22:18 (UTC+8)
