Foresight News reported on November 11, 2026, that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin short-term holders’ realized losses were starting to show. This note restates that report. It is not a new market update, and it does not treat Darkfost’s reading as a conclusion of this desk.
What the on-chain reading showed
Darkfost pointed to SOPR, the metric used to gauge profit and loss on coins sold on-chain. Short-term holder SOPR was 0.98. A reading below 1 means the cohort was selling at an overall loss. He said the short-term holder SOPR had stayed below 1 since October 30, and that its 30-day average had fallen from a high of 1.013 back to 1. On that basis, he said this group’s average profit had disappeared.
How he framed the move
From the data of the preceding few days, Darkfost said the market appeared to be moving toward capitulation. He also said that, in longer bull-market cycles, stretches when short-term holder SOPR falls below 1 have often been relatively better buying opportunities. That comparison is his historical observation, not a trade instruction and not a forecast issued here.
The limit he placed on “extreme”
He drew a clear boundary. The 30-day average of SOPR was still at 1 and had not moved into negative territory. In his view, capitulation could continue for several more days before reaching an extreme level. Whether loss-selling among short-term holders becomes more severe therefore depended, on his own terms, on that average leaving 1 and on how long the loss regime lasted. The November 11 report left both unresolved.
The figures above are those given in the Foresight News account of Darkfost’s post: short-term holder SOPR at 0.98, below 1 since October 30, and a 30-day average down from 1.013 to 1. No later prices, volumes, or outcomes are added.
